Italia’s GDP below expectations: flat in the third quarter of 2026. Manufacturing declines

In the third quarter of 2026, gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in chained values with 2020 as the base year, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, remained unchanged compared with the previous quarter and showed growth of 0.8 per cent compared with the same quarter of 2025. This was reported by Istat in its preliminary data. The third quarter of 2026 had four more working days than the previous quarter and one more than the third quarter of 2025. The trend therefore marks a clear slowdown: in the first quarter, the change was +0.3 per cent, whilst in the second it was +0.2 per cent. Analysts’ forecasts had predicted growth of between 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent for the third quarter.

The calendar-adjusted growth rate of Italian GDP for 2026 stands at 0.8 per cent. In other words, this would be the annual growth rate achieved assuming zero cyclical variation in the latter part of the year. The year 2026 has three more working days than 2025. “The economic stagnation observed in the third quarter leaves the projected growth for 2026 unchanged at 0.8 per cent,” notes Istat. The government and the majority of national and international institutions forecast 1 per cent growth for 2026, without taking calendar effects into account (which are not considered even in EU surveys for calculating the deficit-to-GDP ratio). The figures for the final quarter of the year therefore remain crucial to achieving this target.

The zero quarter-on-quarter change – as highlighted by Istat – reflects an increase in value added in services and agriculture, alongside a decrease in industry (Istat will quantify these trends in a month’s time). On the demand side, there was a positive contribution from domestic demand (excluding stocks) and a negative contribution from net external demand.