Presidential runoff

Poland on the ballot, head-to-head between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki

Both candidates, according to the polls, are hovering around 46%.

by Foreign News

30 May 2025

Manifesti elettorali del sindaco di Varsavia e membro del partito polacco al governo, la Coalizione Civica, Rafal Trzaskowski (a destra), e di Karol Nawrocki (a sinistra), candidato alle elezioni presidenziali polacche del 2025 sostenuto dal partito di destra polacco Diritto e Giustizia (PiS) e dal candidato di sinistra Adrian Zandberg, a Varsavia. (Photo by Wojtek Radwanski / AFP)

3' min read

Key points

Poland is a member country of the EU and NATO
The themes of the campaign are three: abortion, migrants, relationship with the EU
Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is pro-European, Nawrocki Eurosceptic

3' min read

Poland returns to the polls for the presidential election runoff between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki. The clash, scheduled for tomorrow, promises to be close and full of domestic and international political implications.

Poland is a member of the EU and NATO. The presidential duel is a reflection of a clear ideological split: on the one hand there is 53-year-old Trzaskowski, a liberal and pro-European supported by the centrist coalition in government with Donald Tusk; on the other hand there is 42-year-old Nawrocki, a radical conservative supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, to which outgoing president Andrzej Duda also belongs. The two candidates are neck and neck in the polls, both credited with around 46% of the voting intentions, according to Politico's surveys.

Campaign themes

The central themes of the campaign were three: abortion, migrants and the relationship with the European Union. Currently, assisting abortion is punishable by imprisonment, while no law punishes women if they perform it with pills ordered online. The migration issue continues to have relevance mainly because of the pressure along the border with Belarus, while tensions with Brussels have a dual nature, economic and political.

The challenge is largely played out among the protest electorate, in particular the young people who, in the first round on 18 May, rewarded the 'new' Polish extreme right of the Confederation and its leader Slawomir Mentzen, who achieved almost 15%. Both candidates sought his endorsement, participating in interviews on his popular YouTube channel and courting his electoral base. Nawrocki signed a document live on air with eight demands, including a veto on Ukraine's entry into NATO, while Trzaskowski was only open on a few points, reiterating instead his support for Kiev and Lgbtq+ rights, a sensitive issue in a strongly Catholic country.

A few days before the presidential run-off, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the raising of the Bravo and Bravo-Crp alert levels in response to the risk of hybrid and cyber threats from Russia and Belarus. The measure aims to prevent possible interference in the electoral process.

The role of the president in Poland is mainly ceremonial, but the power of veto can block government action. Duda, who has obstructed many of the reforms promised by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, knows this well. A Trzaskowski victory would unblock the centrist agenda, including changes to the abortion law and the introduction of civil unions. A success for Nawrocki would result in five years of potential institutional paralysis. The campaign took on an even more international dimension with the intervention of US President Donald Trump, who met Nawrocki at the White House and praised his conservative and sovereignist vision. According to some observers, quoted by Afp, an eventual election of Nawrocki could cool relations with Brussels and reduce Polish support for Ukraine, while a Trzaskowski president would strengthen Warsaw's Euro-Atlantic coalition. With less and less to go before the vote, the climate remains tense and unpredictable. Thousands of citizens took part in parallel demonstrations led by the two challengers on Sunday, symbolising a nation - and perhaps also a Europe - deeply divided. "The future is at stake," said Trzaskowski. "I am your voice," replied Nawrocki. Now it is up to the Poles to choose which path to take.