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Can Kamala Harris win? What the polls say

Whether the current vice-president has a chance of beating Trump was first wondered, according to CNN, by the incumbent president himself, and now the polling institutes are wondering

19 July 2024

Usa 2024, Biden appoggia la vicepresidente Kamala Harris

3' min read

After Joe Biden's retirement, can Kamala Harris win? Biden himself wondered first of all, according to CNN, and now the polling institutes are wondering. According to Public Policy Polling, an institute much listened to by Democrats, Harris with the right deputy (the two governors of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, and Michigan, Gretchen Withmer) could probably beat the Trump-Vance pair in two critical Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. The pollsters also asked what is the strongest argument in favour of Harris and the answer was abortion.

But a series of polls conducted immediately after 27 June, thus immediately after the disastrous TV debate between Trump and Biden, showed that Harris obtained the same results as Biden against Trump and the same trend was confirmed immediately after the attempted assassination of Trump during the rally in Pennsylvania. A YouGov poll conducted between 13 and 16 July found that Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43% while Harris would get a slightly worse result, losing to Trump 39% to 44%. According to another CNN poll published shortly before, Ms Harris was two percentage points behind Trump in a hypothetical comparison, while Biden was behind the former president by six points.

Another CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted after Butler's attack, finds that Donald Trump has increased his lead over Joe Biden: the tycoon has 52% of the vote against 47%. It changes little in the case of a comparison against Harris, who stands at 48%, compared to 51% for the former president.

A new AP-NORC poll by the Center for Public Affairs Research found that about 6 in 10 Democrats believe Kamala Harris would do a good job as president. About 2 in 10 Democrats don't believe she would, and another 2 in 10 say they don't know enough about her.

So far, it must be said, Harris has shown herself to be a loyal collaborator of Biden's by strenuously defending him from the attacks that rained down after the TV debate with Trump, a point of no return for many Democrats who privately and then also openly began calling for the 81-year-old president to withdraw from the presidential race. In the meantime, however, Kamala Harris's allies are working to make sure that the vice-president will be the chosen one in case Joe Biden retires. The shadow campaign, Politico reports, is complicated by the short time available and doubts within the party about Harris and her ability to win against Donald Trump.

Despite this, efforts are already underway and the campaign behind the scenes has already begun its pressing in the knowledge that the vice-president starts from a disadvantageous position. Harris would inherit the millions raised by the Biden-Harris campaign but her staff is already working to get Democratic donors to divert funds to what would be the second woman candidate for the White House after Hillary Clinton. Women's organisations have started to move, but everything is being done anonymously because Harris's position is very delicate at the moment. In the meantime, Harris has to convince Democratic leaders that she is the best option to replace Biden and has to avoid an open convention in August.

According to Politico among the Democratic leaders, the position of Jim Clyburn, the African-American Dem leader, stands out, that if Biden leaves Harris must take his place. Positions such as Clyburn's are supported by a survey such as The Economist/YouGov's according to which 79% of Democrats would support Harris in the November challenge against Trump.

Just today Friday, the New York Times reported, Harris will talk to keyDemocratic donors after Biden declared his intention to return to the campaign trail next week. It is not immediately clear what message Harris intends to send to the donor network during the agreed 30-minute call on short notice, the Times reported, citing two insiders. The Biden campaign had no comment.