Polymarket, the platform where you can bet on anything (even war)

These are just the latest cases to have fuelled suspicions of possible insider trading on Polymarket, made possible by the very nature of the platform.

The key difference between Polymarket and traditional, regulated platforms is that prediction markets offer the possibility of placing bets using cryptocurrencies and do not require the same levels of identification. A single user can create multiple accounts, and the public data on the blockchain does not allow the identification of those who control them.

It’s simple to use.

Anyone can place bets by choosing between two options. To give a concrete example, in response to the question “Who will be the next Hungarian Prime Minister?”, users can buy “Yes” or “No” odds assigned to the two available options (in this case “Péter Magyar” or “Viktor Orbán”).

The values of the selected options change in real time: the contract always has a value between 0 and 1 dollar, with the price changing as market probabilities rise or fall.

To continue with this example, if the market assigns Péter Magyar a 70 per cent probability of being elected, the ‘Yes’ odds are 0.70 dollars.

Once the event is over, if your prediction turns out to be correct, you win $1. In the example given, therefore, our profit from betting on Magyar would be 0.30 dollars, that is, the difference between the full odds and the stake we placed .

One of the main risks associated with using Polymarket is insider trading.

In addition to the war in Iran, there have been other incidents that have raised doubts about the phenomenon: when the United States attacked Venezuela in January 2026, a suspicious betting pattern had suggested that someone was in possession of confidential information about the military operation.

The other real risk is that prediction markets may manipulate the very perception of the events being bet on. Polymarket describes itself as ‘an alternative source of truth’, drawing on the idea that markets can provide accurate predictions about certain events or phenomena.

It is no coincidence that the platform features a feed containing a series of updates on current affairs designed to encourage users to place bets, creating a potential conflict between prediction and the incentive to influence the events themselves.

This dynamic can have disturbing implications.

In March, some users who had placed bets on an Iranian missile attack were accused of harassing and threatening a journalist in an attempt to persuade him to alter his articles and thereby influence the outcome of the bets.

The incident has fuelled criticism regarding the ethical risks associated with Polymarket and the risk of influencing the course of events in the real world.

In February 2026, Polymarket reached a value of around nine billion dollars. The interesting figure, however, lies in the volume of money processed by the platform, which reached a record high of 10.57 billion dollars in April.

These figures show that prediction markets are no longer a niche phenomenon, but are becoming an increasingly significant global trend, attracting new players as well.

According to a report by Keyrock and Dune, the total volume of bets on the Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Myriad, Limitless and Opinion reached $44 billion in 2025, with the majority of this split between Polymarket and Kalshi, the second-largest operator.

Polymarket has faced a number of legal issues.

The platform has been banned in certain countries that regulate gambling and sports betting, including France, Switzerland and Australia. In Italia

Following the re-election of Trump as President of the United States, his administration has created a regulatory environment more favourable to the platform.

At the same time, Polymarket has appointed Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, after receiving investment from his company, 1789 Capital. The race to turn real-world events into financial assets looks set to continue.