Polymarket: the blockchain platform that turns geopolitical events into cryptographic bets

These are just the latest cases that have fuelled suspicions of possible insider trading on Polymarket, made possible by the very nature of the platform.

The fundamental difference of Polymarket, with traditional, regulated platforms, is thatforecast markets offer the possibility of betting via cryptocurrency and do not require the same levels of identification. A single user can create multiple accounts, and the public data on the blockchain does not allow for identification of who controls them.

Operation is simple.

Anybody can place bets by betting on two alternatives. To give a concrete example, to the question "Who will be the next Hungarian prime minister?" users can buy 'Yes' or 'No' odds attributed to the two available options (in this case "Péter Magyar" or "Viktor Orbán").

The values of the chosen options change in real time: the contract always has a value between 0 and 1 dollar, with the price changing as the market probabilities increase or decrease.

Staying with the example, if the market gives Péter Magyar a 70% chance of being elected, the 'Yes' share is worth $0.70.

Once the event is over, if the prediction made turns out to be correct, you win $1. In the aforementioned case, therefore, our gain by betting on Magyar would be $0.30, i.e. the difference between the value of the whole stake and the one we bet.

One of the main risks of using Polymarket is insider trading.

Besides the war in Iran, there have been other episodes that have raised doubts about the phenomenon: when the US attacked Venezuela, in January 2026, a suspicious pattern of betting had suggested that someone was in possession of confidential information about the military operation.

The other real risk is that prediction markets can manipulate the very perception of the events on which people bet. Polymarket defines itself as 'an alternative source of truth', exploiting the idea that markets can provide accurate predictions of certain events or phenomena.

Not surprisingly, the platform hosts a feed with a series of updates on current topics designed to stimulate users to bet, creating a potential conflict between prediction and incentive to influence the events themselves.

The dynamics may have disturbing implications.

In March, some users who had placed bets on an Iranian missile attack were accused of harassing and threatening a journalist in order to push him to edit his articles and thus influence the outcome of the bets.

The episode fuelled criticism about the ethical risks of Polymarket and the risk of influencing the course of events in reality.

As of February 2026, Polymarket has reached a value of approximately nine billion dollars. The interesting fact, however, lies in the volumes of money moved by the platform, which reached a record $10.57 billion in April.

Figures that show how forecasting markets are no longer a niche, but are becoming an increasingly important global phenomenon, also attracting new players.

According to a report by Keyrock and Dune, the total volume of bets on the Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Myriad, Limitless and Opinion platforms has reached USD 44 billion by 2025, most of it divided between Polymarket and Kalshi, the second largest operator.

Polymarket faced several legal problems.

The platform has been banned in some countries that regulate gambling and sports betting, including France, Switzerland and Australia. In Italia

After the re-election of Trump as president of the United States, his administration created a regulatory environment more favourable to the platform.

ùAt the same time, Polymarket appointed Donald Trump Jr. as advisor, after receiving investments from his company, 1789 Capital. The race to turn real events into financial assets seems set to continue.