Black week for stock exchanges with war in Iran and energy shock, Milan -6.5%
Brent oil was up 26.1% in the eighth, Wti up 33.4% and Ttf gas in Amsterdam was up 63.4%
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The war in Iran and the ensuing escalation across the Middle East weighs on the European stock markets, with the shares all closing the first week of March in the red. The US and Israeli attack on Iran and the Islamic Republic's subsequent reaction put the energy supply chains and thus the resilience of the global economy at risk. The worst performer of the eighth was Madrid (-7%), followed by Frankfurt (-6.9%) and Paris (-6.8%). It doesn't get any better for the Ftse Mib of Milan which ends the week at -6.5%, while London's Ftse 100 leaves 5.7% on the ground. The spectre of a new energy shock, however, sent oil and gas prices soaring: the Brent rose 26.1% in the eighth week, the Wti 33.4% and gas in Amsterdam posted a +63.4%. On a sectoral level, the hardest hit in Europe was the automotive sector (-9.1%), followed by banks (-8.3%). The only 'plus' sign was the oil sector at +0.7%.
On the stock market, on Piazza Affari only three stocks closed the week in the positive. Lottomatica is the best (+21%), with the market rewarding the 2025 accounts which saw profits rise 45% to 369 million. Second place on the podium for Eni (+4.4%) in the wake of the performance of the oil sector, while Leonardo also did well (+3.2%). The biggest loser was Amplifon (-20.2%) after its below-expected 2025 accounts and failure to provide guidance, followed by Nexi (-19.9%) after its plan, failure to announce buyback and disappointing targets. Mediobanca (-14.9%) and Mps (-13.7%) were particularly heavy, reflecting doubts over future governance and, above all, the probable departure of CEO Luigi Lovaglio, who was excluded from the board of directors' list.
Geopolitical tensions pushed safe-haven assets, with the greenback strengthening and the euro-dollar exchange rate dropping 1.8% in the eighth quarter. Gold in the spot contract bucked the trend, dropping 2.6 per cent.
Bourses in the red on Friday with the spectre of stagflation, Milan -1%
Another session of declines for the European stock exchanges, squeezed between worries about escalation in the Middle East, the run-up in oil prices and worse-than-expected US labour data that brought thespectrum of stagflation back to the fore. Milan's Ftse Mib, after falling more than 2%, ended at -1.02%, weighed down in particular by banks, with Mps at -2.7%. But while the war in Iran weighed on the stock markets, on the contrary it gave wings to oil, with the Brent surpassing the $90 per barrel mark. Gas also rose to EUR 52 per megawatt hour. The conflict does not seem to be resolvable in the short term: US President Donald Trump wrote in Truth today that there will be no agreement with Iran except on the basis of an "unconditional surrender".
In this context, there are also the US employment data which showed slowing employment, reinforcing "the idea of a less solid labour market than hoped for just a few weeks ago", comments Filippo Diodovich, senior market strategist at Ig Italia. This poses a problem for the Fed's next moves, since 'a slowing labour market could justify a more accommodative line in the coming months', but the escalation in Iran 'risks fuelling new inflationary pressures through higher energy prices, fuel prices, and transport costs'. In this light, according to the expert, fundamental will be next week's inflation data, while the market 'continues to see a cautious Fed'. In the rest of Europe, Paris is down -0.6%, Frankfurt -0.9%, Madrid -1.1%, Amsterdam -1.5% and London -1.2%.
