Poste Italiane queen of deniers, analysts like the privatisation process

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The share price of Poste Italiane is moving at a brisk pace at Piazza Affari, positioning itself among the best of the FTSE MIB . What is driving the listing is the positive opinion of the parliamentary committees of the Chamber and Senate, which came on the eve of the meeting, on the continuation of the privatisation process of part of the shares held by the Mef. The main recommendations that have emerged are the involvement of retail investors and employees and the safeguarding of employment and territorial presence, especially in the country's most peripheral areas.

According to Intermonte's analysts, the go-ahead for the process is expected shortly, given the words of Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti last week, who explained that 'in light of the forecast update that will be made shortly with the publication of the Def, we will assess the opportunity to modify the planned timeline to achieve a debt-to-GDP ratio profile consistent with the programmatic commitments already established'. For operators, the privatisation of the Treasury's share, 'in the long term, would substantially increase the free float with a positive effect for the stock'. The assumptions are for a willingness on the part of the government to dispose of the entire 29.26% stake held by the Mef and currently worth around EUR 4.5 billion.

At the same time, analysts also see it as 'probable' that the sale of this stake could take place in several stages, with a first tranche of around 14% of the capital (around EUR 2 billion) that would allow the Mef and Cdp to maintain a combined 51% stake in the group; in a second stage, they explain, the Mef could sell the remaining stake, maintaining public control over the company through the 35% that would remain in the hands of Cdp. Also pushing the share price up is the improved rating from Ubs, which sees 'better capital distribution and earnings prospects and an attractive valuation'. Analysts upgrade the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' and increase earnings per share for the period 2024-28 by 5-16%, while the price target is revised to EUR 14.2 (from EUR 12.2). Traders say they are 'more constructive on Poste Italiane's earnings growth', comforted by the 'company's ability to keep costs under control'.