Investing in commodities

Precious tops, metals and oil without panache

The cease-fire in Gaza has changed the scenario, but the flight into gold and speculation on copper do not stop. Crude oil on the brakes

(Imagoeconomica)

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The geopolitical turmoil of recent years has shot up commodity prices by miles.

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the yellow metal traded at less than 1,800 dollars and at the beginning of this year it was still at 2,600 dollars, a level that already seemed a vertiginous threshold to many.

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Energy resources, on the other hand, have sunk underground and over the same period show a negative price gap: oil, after an initial flare-up, has started to fall due to fears of an economic slowdown and, consequently, demand, especially from China, which is the largest global consumer; renewable resources have given way to the need to quickly have enough fuel to power the military industry and the domestic production of strategic goods.

Gold, the star

Behind gold went the precious metals, such as silver, and copper, another metal susceptible to speculation. Most industrial metals, such as zinc or lead, remained hooked like crude oil on the mishaps of growth.

L’ANDAMENTO DELLE COMMODITY DAL 2022

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Strategic Land

Then, there are real raw materials hostage to tensions, such as rare earths, used by China as a political bargaining weapon with the United States and Europe, which badly need them for numerous production of goods of extreme importance in such a delicate scenario, from magnets to missiles to the most advanced software systems.

Risks and Opportunities

For investors, the confusion that clears the cards in the financial markets always conceals opportunities, for those who feel like taking risks. Even for the most fearless, however, there is the problem of knowing when to take profit from rises or, on the contrary, whether to take advantage of price declines.

Critical thresholds

The question most frequently asked by savers is whether to accommodate a portion of the portfolio in valuables and, above all, in gold, or whether the quota reached is now dizzying and at risk of receding. The solution may lie in allocating a safe portion of the total investment, an anchor that one must always keep in the savings basket, regardless of the weather, to avoid dangerous swerves.

In the past few days, the skirmishes between China and the US over trade agreements have sent gold to new all-time highs and experts do not seem worried about it retreating any time soon, not least because the expected cuts in US interest rates make it relatively more competitive than investing in bonds, even if it does not pay interest. If, in fact, rates fall, coupons on bonds become less attractive and gold benefits in comparison.

The tools

Sulle altre materie prime, l’appetito degli investitori individuali è meno forte, anche perché sono più difficili da comprare e richiedono una maggiore conoscenza degli strumenti e dei mercati. Ci sono, però, molti prodotti del risparmio gestito che facilitano l’investimento e la diversificazione. Principalmente, fondi comuni ed Etf, i fondi quotati che possono replicare l’andamento di un’attività finanziaria o di un indice (il petrolio o le risorse energetiche, per esempio) o Etc, cioè fondi quotati che investono in una materia prima, fisica o sintetica (attraverso derivati). Come si vede dall’infografica, però, la mediazione di uno strumento finanziario può, nel bene e nel male, far divergere la performance da quella della materia prima sottostante. Un fondo sui metalli, per esempio, può investire nelle società che li producono, invece che nella materia prima; si può coprire dal rischio cambio (le materie prime sono quotate in dollari), o può andare a leva, cioè moltiplicare la scomme

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