Closed-end funds

Private equity, transactions down 20%

Realised 15,056 deals with a total value of $1,323 billion. Global inflows remained stable at $556 billion

by Monica D'Ascenzo

2' min read

2' min read

Second year in a row of decline in global private equity activity. Absolute numbers, however, often do not give an overall picture of market developments. Broadening the view to a longer time series allows for a better understanding of how the 15,056 deals amounting to $1,323bn in 2023 are in line with the evolution of the closed-end fund industry in the pre-pandemic. Indeed, the figures are higher in terms of number of deals than pre-Covid and stable in terms of total amount.

Admittedly, the record levels of 2021, with 20,168 deals for $2,221 billion, are a long way off, but it is also true that a number of acquisitions that had been pending during the pandemic year came to fruition then. And the rise in rates between the US and Europe during the year certainly did not play in private equity's favour.

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Le operazioni dei private equity

Fonte PitchBook

I buyout

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Going into the details of the data just published by PitchBook, buyout deals are the ones making the market, with a share of76.6% thanks to 11,536 deals. The evolution of multiples is interesting, with 2023 at its lowest level in seven years with 11 times the enterprise value/Ebitda ratio. This is quite a drop from 12.4 times in 2022 and 13.2 times in 2021. In previous years, transactions averaged 11.5 times, which is still higher than last year.

Andaemnto dei multipli delle operazioni di buyout

Fonte PitchBook

The geographies of operations

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From the geographical breakdown, however, it emerges that North America remains the market driver with 7,161 deals for a total value of 693.5 billion, followed by Europe with 6,103 deals for 455 billion. Well behind comes Asia with 980 deals for a total value of 95.1 billion.

Andamento dei deal per geografie

Fonte PitchBook

A difficult exit market

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The other side of the coin is exit activity, which was particularly complex, partly because the option of IPOs, which is expected to recover this year, was almost completely lacking. There were 2,415 investment exits for a total amount of Lire 574.2 billion, down 31.5% year-on-year.

The record for the last 14 years was set in 2021 with 4,226 disposals for a total value of USD 1,694 billion. In that year in the US alone, 41.3 per cent of portfolio companies had been sold to funds. In a report dedicated to the US market, PitchBook analysts note that last year "buyout fund distributions were only 14.6 per cent of initial NAV, well below the long-term average of 26.5 per cent".

This, in their view, may lead to a further difficulty this year in raising new funds, because institutional investors usually reinvest what they receive from funds following exits. Last year, however, fundraising held steady compared to the previous year, reaching $556.1 billion for 593 funds. The peak was seen in 2021 with 1,459 for 620.3 billion.

Evoluzione del mercato delle exit

Fonte PitchBook

By 2024, the Fed's and ECB's estimated reversal of monetary policy could give the industry breathing space through a rate cut, although PitchBook says there are risks to the market.

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