Psychology of sales in the age of chaos

There is a time of year when even the most cautious consumers give in to the desire to treat themselves to a little something extra, justified by a lower price. This is the sales season, a ritual that survives economic cycles, social changes and, today, even a climate of uncertainty that is holding back consumption. From 5 July, Italy's shop windows dress up with discounts, but behind every red card hides a subtle psychological game. It is a balance between the need to save and the desire for gratification.

The data tell of contrasts. ISTAT reports a contraction in consumption compared to the first half of 2024, yet Codacons predicts that the summer sales will still generate a turnover of €3.2 billion. Despite the lower propensity to spend, the date remains a catalyst for attention and a breath of fresh air for commerce.

The consumer of 2025 is different. The erosion of purchasing power has triggered defensive behaviour. Recent research by N26 shows that 63% of Italians will spend less than EUR 200 during the sales, while only 16% will spend more than EUR 500. Seven out of ten Italians say they will spend the same or less than last year. It is the 'freeze' syndrome. In times of uncertainty, the mind adopts a conservative strategy, postpones non-essential purchases and tries to keep control over expenditure. Yet it is precisely in this prudence that the power of sales lurks. Human beings are ritualistic creatures. Marking down a period when it is 'permissible' to buy offers an emotional licence to let loose. It is an antidote to guilt, amplified by the idea of having made a bargain.

Richard H. Thaler, Nobel laureate in economics, has shown how the pleasure of buying is split into two components: the satisfaction of owning a good and the gratification of having paid less for it. That 'pleasure surplus' is more sought after today than ever before. In a climate of widespread stress, shopping becomes a moment of gratification.

Retailers are well aware of this and calibrate their discounts carefully. According to the National Consumers' Union, average discounts in the clothing sector stand at 19.2 per cent. Not excessive, but realistic. Excessively aggressive offers risk triggering mistrust, especially in an age when the consumer is hyper-connected and ready to check every price. Discounts, if dosed well, become a lever of trust. Reinforcing this bond are the pre-sales reserved for the most loyal customers: private appointments, still complete assortments and personalised attention. It is a way of rewarding the relationship. It turns the discount into a recognition, rather than a simple incentive to consume.