Scorecards and markets

Public accounts, Moody's also promotes Italy. Here are the precedents

The 'positive' outlook, assigned last May by Moody's, could be a signal

by Rome Editorial Staff

21 November 2025Aggiornato alle ore 23.15

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

31 October 2025: Scope upgrades Italian outlook to 'positive'
17 October 2025: Dbrs raises Italy's rating to A (low)
19 September 2025: Fitch upgrades Italy to BBB+
23 May 2025: Moody's raises outlook from stable to positive
5 April 2025: Fitch confirms BBB rating with positive outlook for Italy
25 October 2024: Dbrs confirms Italy's rating, lifts positive trend

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Moody's also decided to raise the rating of Italian government debt, to Baa2 (from Baa3) with a stable outlook. The news may now seem familiar, after the six BTp promotions already achieved this year. Here are the previous ones.

31 October 2025: Scope improves Italian outlook to 'positive'

At the end of October, Scope raised the outlook from stable to positive alongside the BBB+ assigned to BTp bonds. The agency was persuaded to improve the outlook on Italian government bonds, although without moving its rating, which has remained stable since mid-2021, by a combination of factors, starting with the return of the primary surplus (EUR 19.5 billion this year, equal to 0.9% of GDP) to the Italian accounts, made possible by the farewell to the Superbonus and the steady increase in tax revenues.

17 October 2025: Dbrs raises Italy's rating to A (low)

In the middle of the same month, the agency Dbrs Morningstaralza raised Italy's rating to A (low) from BBB (high), with the trend stable from positive. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government "is proving to be stable and credible," with Italy going through a "period of political stability that provides greater predictability in policymaking and credibility in its budget plans," according to Dbrs. The ratings upgrade "reflects Morningstar Dbrs' view that the cumulative reduction of vulnerabilities in the banking sector and the improvement in the external sector have led to a more resilient economy and that fiscal consolidation will continue and at least help stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term".

19 September 2025: Fitch upgrades Italy to BBB+

On 19 September, Fitch upgraded Italy's credit rating, raising it to BBB+ from BBB, with the outlook changing to 'stable' from 'positive'.

23 May 2025: Moody's raises outlook from stable to positive

On 23 May Moody's raised the outlook accompanying Baa3 from 'stable' to 'positive'. Another improvement in the rating that apparently goes against the rough waters of the international markets.

11 April 2025: S&P raises Italy's rating, from policy stability markets

On 11 April S&P raised Italy's rating from BBB to BBB+ with a 'stable' outlook. A rating that, as the rating agency explained at the time, rewarded political and market stability. And if growth stops at 0.6% this year, the debt-GDP ratio will then stabilise from 2028. "Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government, among the longest-lasting in recent Italian history, enjoys solid public support. It also benefits from a stable parliamentary majority and limited opposition threats, which makes it likely to remain in power until 2027. This political continuity has helped to preserve the stability of the financial markets and support steady progress,' the agency pointed out.

5 April 2025: Fitch confirms BBB rating with positive outlook for Italy

On 5 April, Fitch confirmed its BBB rating with a positive outlook for Italy. "Italy's rating," the agency clarified on that occasion, "is supported by its large, diversified and high value-added economy, membership of the eurozone, and solid institutions relative to the median of the BBB category. These strengths are balanced by weak macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals, in particular very high public debt and still low growth potential. The positive outlook reflects reduced fiscal and financial risks in the medium term from exceptionally high debt levels due to improved policy stability and fiscal management. They also reflect resilience and room for manoeuvre in the face of economic and fiscal headwinds stemming from elevated external risks and geopolitical uncertainties'.

25 October 2024: Dbrs confirms Italy rating, lifts positive trend

On 25 October last year, the Dbrs Morningstar agency confirmed the BBB (high) rating for Italy and raised the trend to positive from stable. On that occasion, the agency explained that the revision was 'linked to the improvement in the medium-term fiscal trajectory, which mitigates the risks associated with public debt, which remains high'.