Public accounts, Moody's rating arrives today. Here is how the previous ones went

The decision by Moody's on Italy's rating is expected in the next few hours, with the markets closed, probably in the evening. Moody's has maintained the country's rating since 2018 at Baa3, the lowest among the major agencies corresponding to the BBB- of S&P and Fitch and just one step above junk. To find the last improving action by the New York agency, one has to go back as far as May 2002, when the Republic's creditworthiness was raised from Aa3 to Aa2.

Here are the most recent judgements on Italy.

On 11 April, S&P raised Italy's rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook. A rating that, as the rating agency explained at the time, rewarded political and market stability. And if growth stops at 0.6% this year, the debt-to-GDP ratio will then stabilise from 2028. "Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government, among the longest-running in recent Italian history, enjoys solid public support. It also benefits from a stable parliamentary majority and limited opposition threats, which makes it likely to remain in power until 2027. This political continuity has helped to preserve the stability of the financial markets and support steady progress,' the agency pointed out.

The last time Italy had had its sovereign rating upgraded by one of the major agencies was with Fitch, from BBB- to BBB, in December 2021, a few months after the Draghi executive took office, in the midst of the Covid crisis but with the European Recovery Fund bailout. Going back a little further, the previous improvement in Italy's rating dates back to S&P, again from BBB- to BBB, in October 2017: Gentiloni-led Italy was emerging from the dual sovereign debt-banking crisis.

On 5 April, Fitch confirmed its BBB rating with a positive outlook for Italy. "Italy's rating," the agency clarified on that occasion, "is supported by its large, diversified and high value-added economy, membership of the eurozone, and solid institutions relative to the median of the BBB category. These strengths are balanced by weak macroeconomic and fiscal fundamentals, in particular very high public debt and still low growth potential. The positive outlook reflects reduced fiscal and financial risks in the medium term from exceptionally high debt levels due to improved policy stability and fiscal management. They also reflect resilience and room for manoeuvre in the face of economic and fiscal headwinds stemming from elevated external risks and geopolitical uncertainties'.