Pure 5G accelerates in the world while 6G is already on the horizon

The future of mobile networks is not an exercise in imagination: it is an industrial agenda with concrete dates, numbers and forecasts. And in the end, what is looming very much resembles a paradigm shift.

The latest Ericsson Mobility Report, published a week ago, provides a snapshot of an industry that is accelerating towards network 'personalisation'. Scrolling through the study's pages and figures, differentiated connectivity, that which offers tailor-made performance thanks to network slicing, no longer appears to be an experiment for insiders: by 2025, 33 operators are already offering it, with a total of 65 active commercial services, almost a third of which were launched this year alone.

Underlying this is the adoption of 5G standalone (SA) - the 'pure' version of 5G, based on native infrastructures without leveraging the 4G legacy - which, thanks to so-called 'network slicing', the subdivision of the network into portions that can be used ad hoc, allows the network to be stitched to the customer's needs. And here the numbers speak for themselves: more than 90 operators worldwide have already switched on or soft-launched standalone 5G networks, some 30 more than last year and 20 more than in the June report. Within these networks, Ericsson analysts surveyed 118 real-world use cases of network slicing, ranging from premium services for consumer users to solutions for enterprises and public administrations.

If the growth of standalone 5G is the key news of the present, the future has a name that recurs with less and less caution: 6G. The first commercial launches are expected to arrive in the most advanced markets - the United States, Japan, South Korea, China, India and some Gulf countries - within a few years. By the end of 2031, 180 million 6G subscriptions are estimated, a figure that could grow rapidly if adoption anticipates the curves of previous generations. Clearly everything will then have to be tested against the facts in a game that, as happened with 5G, has a strong geopolitical flavour. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has banned Chinese technologies from Huawei and Zte from the new 6G mobile networks. Berlin's decision is in line with the EU's stance on digital sovereignty that is increasingly central to Brussels' policies. Chinese suppliers are classified as high risk.

Europe, warns the Ericsson report, is in danger of reaching 6G 'about a year late' anyway, due to the slow implementation of standalone 5G. Which, however, continues its march. By the end of 2025, there will be 2.9 billion subscriptions, one third of the world's sims, an increase of 600 million in twelve months. By 2031, 5G subscriptions will grow to 6.4 billion, or two-thirds of the mobile total, and almost 65% (4.1 billion) will be standalone. Coverage is growing at the same rate: in 2025 alone, an additional 400 million people will have gained access to 5G, and half of the world's population outside mainland China will live in served areas by the end of the year.