Qiagen's profit warning drags Diasorin into the red

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Qiagen's profit warning (down more than 6 points in Frankfurt) drags Diasorin into the red. Thus, the Piazza Affari-listed diagnostics company slips about 3 points in a FTSE MIB uptrend. Weighing on its performance are, as mentioned, the preliminary results of Quiagen, which, like Diasorin, is active in the production of sample and analysis technologies for molecular diagnostics. The company closed the first quarter with preliminary revenues of EUR 492 million (+2% reported and -1% at constant exchange rates), against expectations of around EUR 500 million, and earnings per share at constant exchange rates of USD 0.54, in line with consensus.

It also cut its 2026 guidance, with revenues now estimated to be up 1-2% at constant exchange rates (from +5% previously and against a consensus of 5.9%) and earnings per share of $2.43 (from over $2.50 and a pre-warning consensus of around $2.51). "The weakness mainly reflects the slump in demand for QuantiFeron blood tests (-5% at constant exchange rates), linked to lower migration movements in the US and the difficult environment in the Middle East," Intermonte explained. The segment for the current year is 'expected to flat by about 503 million euro in revenues (from an initial forecast of +9% per annum). Added to this is the "persistent caution of US customers", which, according to the investment bank, has held back the Life Sciences segment. However, in the second half of the year an acceleration" should arrive, according to Qiagen, "thanks to new product launches and the sequential improvement of QuantiFeron".

As for the effects on Diasorin, "Qiagen's profit warning has a double negative read-across," Intermonte explains. On the one hand, there is in fact the "persistent weakness of the US Life Sciences segment, which generates about a third of Diasorin's revenues (about 15% of total sales)". On the other, the 'slump in demand for QuantiFeron, a test marketed in partnership with DiaSorin'.

This segment, according to the analysts, contributes about EUR 100 million in annual revenues for DiaSorin (or about 8% of the group), with a dilutive impact on the margin due to royalties paid by the German company'. In addition, the experts add, 'it has historically been a significant driver of growth for the Immunodiagnostics division (65% of group revenues)'. The outlook then risks not improving for the future, as the sector's weakness could be linked to 'the Trump administration's restrictive immigration policies, which could persist through 2026'.

"All of this," adds Intermonte, "is part of a potentially deteriorating competitive environment", with Roche that on Capital Market Day on 12 May could make official its entry in 2026 into the latent tuberculosis testing segment, "a market with a potential of 70-80 million tests/year (of which 20 million in North America) and still under-penetrated".