Quantum computing: D-Wave & Co’s challenge to the hi-tech giants

Be careful, though: there is a risk that the reality may be different. In other words, that the so-called ‘catching a falling knife’ scenario might play out. In other words: the danger is that, rather than rebounding, the share price will continue to fall, albeit with some ups and downs. Faced with such a dual scenario, how can one navigate it? The answer – whilst emphasising that no operational advice is being given here, nor is any investment recommendation being made – is complex.

Technical analysis may offer an initial indication. “With regard to D-Wave Quantum,” says independent expert Silvio Bona, “the share price reached its peak on 15 October 2025. At the close of trading on that day, the share price stood at $44.78. Subsequently, the company’s share price slipped, forming the three typical Elliott waves, before finding support at the medium-term static support level around $20”, which corresponds to the relative high reached last January. Rigetti Computing’s performance was similar, although the fall ‘was less contained than that of D-Wave Quantum’. In this case, the all-time high – also on 15 October 2025 – stood at $56.34. A level that was abandoned’ to fall to the relative high of January, ‘which – as in the case of D-Wave – was not broken to the downside’. The situation for IonQ, however, is different. The record high – as with the other two companies – was reached in early October (13 October 2025) at ‘$82.09’. However, during the downward move, the share price fell below the relative high set in January. This is a sign of greater weakness in this particular share compared to the other two’. That said, “in all three cases,” concludes Bona, “in addition to the fact that the area around the January 2025 high must be monitored to identify any risks of further declines, no precise technical indicators have yet emerged to signal a genuine recovery”. Consequently, for retail investors, ‘a high degree of caution is required’.

So far, we have looked at some assessments of how shares are performing on the stock market. However, to gain a better understanding of the situation, investors may wish to consider the trends within the relevant sector. In other words: understanding what quantum computing is and what its recent developments have been. It is important to remember that this is a technology which does not use traditional bits, which are ‘fixed’ at the values 0 and 1, but so-called qubits. That is to say: units of information capable of existing simultaneously in both states. It is this characteristic that makes it potentially much more powerful than traditional computers: the combination of high computational and processing capabilities proves, for example, advantageous in training artificial intelligence (AI) models, whilst also helping to reduce energy consumption. It is therefore no surprise that major companies involved in AI are looking at this technology with interest. There is, however, one obstacle: operating on subatomic scales, quantum computers are inherently unstable, which makes them complex to build and manage. For this reason, many experts believe that they are still a long way from reaching full maturity.

Against this backdrop, it is therefore easy to understand two aspects that investors must bear in mind. The first is that the companies described – given the pioneering nature of their business – whilst they cannot be considered start-ups, are nevertheless still unprofitable. An example? Rigetti Computing – which, incidentally, has announced plans to expand its business in Italia – reported an operating loss of $62 million and a net loss of $0.65 per share in the first nine months of 2025. The situation is quite similar, albeit with different figures and scales, for the other two companies: D-Wave, again between early January and late September 2025, posted a net loss of $1.01 per share, whilst IonQ – despite forecasting a turnover in 2025 of between $106 million and $110 million – estimates that the average net loss on an adjusted EBITDA basis will be – again for the current financial year – between $206 million and $216 million.

In short: it is clear that such companies do not trade on the stock market so much on the basis of profitability and the like (if their cash flows are scrutinised at all), but rather – and above all – on the basis of the news flow. A few examples? Winning a contract – particularly one in the defence sector – or a genuine technological breakthrough. Yes, high-tech innovation. On closer inspection – and this is the second factor investors must consider – it is precisely the area of innovation – and the resulting competition – that lies at the heart of the recent fall in Nasdaq shares. In fact, in early October 2025, Alphabet presented the results of a concrete calculation using its Willow quantum chip (unveiled on 9 December 2024). On the one hand, the processor proved to be around 13,000 times faster than the best classical algorithm. On the other hand, whilst still a cutting-edge technology, it has made the idea of using quantum computers for practical applications more realistic. In light of this, rather than continuing to back small, specialised firms, investors have placed their bets – linked to quantum computing – on the giant which, in its own right, already generates significant revenue and profitability. On closer inspection, this strategy is quite widespread. In other words: in order to gain exposure to the sector in question without taking on the risks associated with start-ups or companies far from profitability, investors are turning to large technology groups – such as IBM, amongst others – which are active at this frontier of innovation.

These are just a few strategic suggestions, but what about the price-to-earnings ratios of shares on the stock market? With regard to the small-caps described, given the incredible rally they have experienced, the market indicators are all somewhat off the charts. For example, according to Seeking Alpha, D-Wave’s forward price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is over 340 times. Rigetti Computing’s, for its part, is utterly unrealistic, whilst IonQ’s price-to-sales ratio – although it remains at levels that are still far, far too high – stands at a more ‘moderate’ level of around 150 times.