Quarterly results and confirmation of guidance boost Lottomatica

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Against a market backdrop predominantly coloured red, Lottomatica Group on the Milan Stock Exchange (FTSE MIB), buoyed by its results for the first nine months. Specifically, this morning before the opening bell, the group released its quarterly results, which show, as at 30 September, an adjusted profit of 262.6 million euros, up 2 per cent, and adjusted EBITDA of 665.4 million (+8%) on revenue of 1.72 billion, up 5 per cent. In the third quarter alone, adjusted EBITDA rose by 3 per cent to 200 million, whilst revenue grew by 5 per cent to 537 million. The company then confirmed its guidance for 2026, with adjusted EBITDA expected at the upper end of the €940–980 million range, whilst revenue is estimated at between €2.39 billion and €2.46 billion (+6%/+9%).

“The results for the third quarter of 2026 are in line with our expectations and with the consensus, with EBITDA up 3 per cent year-on-year, driven by the Online segment (+9 per cent), but with the Sports Franchise division down, as expected, due to an unfavourable payout”, comment analysts at Intermonte (with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a target price of €31.2), who highlight the “solid” cash generation, “with net debt as at 30 September in line with our expectations”. ‘On a normalised payout basis,’ they continue, ‘EBITDA would have grown by 17 per cent year-on-year in the quarter, confirming the strength of the underlying trends’. Results were also in line with expectations for the experts at Banca Akros (rated ‘Buy’ with a target price of €32.00), who, however, appear more cautious regarding the adjusted EBITDA guidance and are positioning themselves ‘at the lower end of the range’ provided by the company, i.e. around 940 million, “to take into account the results published to date and our expectations for third-quarter results”.

Lottomatica’s share price is also being buoyed by figures released yesterday by Agipro, the gaming and betting news agency, on market trends in the online casino sector. According to the figures, turnover rose by approximately 8.5%–9% to over 7.4 billion euros in October, whilst Gross Gaming Revenues – that is, turnover net of winnings paid out – rose by 9.4% to 320 million, compared with the previous figure of 292.6 million. It should be noted that Lottomatica’s market share rose to 31.4%, up 10 basis points compared with September and the average for the entire third quarter of 2026. ‘We therefore estimate growth in Lottomatica’s Gross Gaming Revenues of 11.7 per cent in October and 17.7 per cent year-to-date,’ Akros writes. According to the analysts, “in a context where the online casino (iGaming) segment accounts for almost 60 per cent of Lottomatica’s estimated total wagers for 2026, the growth trends described above and the market share performance are solid. We view this news positively.”