Fitch confirms Italy's rating and raises outlook to positive. S&P reaffirms: BBB with stable outlook

"The stable outlook," the note goes on to say, "is based on the expectation of an increase in debt and more resilient economic growth as a result of the stimulus offered by European funds.

An upward adjustment was in the air, although eve bets were uncertain that it would arrive as early as Friday evening, and it marks an excellent kick-off for the manoeuvre expected between Sunday evening and Monday in the Chamber of Deputies for the start of its examination. In the Chart of Accounts demanded by the reform of EU fiscal rules, Italy has promised to crush the deficit to 1.8% of GDP over five years, let the structural primary balance fly to 2.2%, and keep the pace of primary spending increases to 1.5% while avoiding new tax or social security adventures. And observers show that they appreciate, perhaps more than some sectors of the same majority, the 'responsible and prudent' policy claimed by Economy Minister Giorgetti on every occasion, public and otherwise, in the name of a 'credibility' that offers dividends precisely in terms of the spread.

What helps is obviously a scenario in which monetary policy has changed direction, thanks to a slowdown in inflation so sharp as to fuel speculation of a further rate cut before the end of the year, with the result that the Chart of Accounts has been able to budget for interest expenditure that is 13 billion less over three years than forecast in the April Def (Sole 24 Ore, 1 October). But as the French case shows, and the Paris spread travelling 30 points above June levels, macro premises may be useful but they alone are not enough. And it is this that is crushing the spread between the BTp and Bund these days to three-year lows: 'The markets are noticing that the manoeuvre is attentive to public accounts and is not creating conflict with Europe,' observes Giuseppe Sersale, partner at Anthilia. And this reassures investors in no small measure. Who are now also taking note of the improved rating outlook.

But in the markets the day also saw other stories. The first was the new, umpteenth, record for gold, which broke through the $2,700 an ounce mark for the first time. Why? What is pushing it so high? If one reads the comments, the focus is on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. "Markets have the focus on geopolitical tensions after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar," Bloomberg writes in commentary on the yellow metal. Reuters speaks of "demand for safe haven assets ahead of the US presidential election and because of tensions in the Middle East". StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell reiterates the same point: 'Markets continue to watch geopolitics and the Middle East.

But these reasons are hardly convincing. If this were the case, if the markets were really tense about the Middle East, then it would not make sense that stock exchanges as well as gold are on all-time highs. Stock exchanges go up when there is optimism, not when tensions are only high. And even yesterday Frankfurt and Wall Street updated their all-time highs. So why does gold keep running? There can be many explanations, and one looks at China: since the Central Bank stopped accumulating gold in May (to balance reserves in favour of the yellow metal), the accumulation in industrial silos in China has grown exponentially. This, combined with various other reasons, has led gold to cross the $2,700 an ounce threshold.

Against this backdrop, stock exchanges closed the week on a positive note. On Friday, they were dragged up by the news of new stimuli in China (see article opposite) and the positive mood triggered after the ECB cut rates. Thus, Milan closed up 0.47% (+2.61% during the week), Paris 0.37% and Frankfurt 0.38%.