Recordati runs after first quarter accounts and awaiting Cvc's moves

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Recordati on the rise in the aftermath of the first-quarter accounts released with the markets closed and in anticipation of the moves of Cvc, which last February, after sending a letter to the company's board of directors, confirmed its intention to launch a takeover bid to acquire the entire capital of the group, valued at over 10 billion euro. Since the low on 19 March, the stock has risen by around 13%, but since the beginning of the year the performance has only been positive for around 4%.

In detail, the company announced that it ended the January-March period with consolidated net revenues of €713.4 million, up 4.9% or 8.7% on a like-for-like basis and at constant exchange rates (+7.9% excluding Turkey) compared to the same period in 2025. "This result is attributable, in particular, to the strong momentum of the Rare Diseases business," Recordati itself explained. The negative foreign exchange impact for the first quarter of 2026 was €29.1 million (-4.3%), mainly attributable to the depreciation of the US dollar and the Turkish lira.

Ebitda was EUR 283.6m in the first quarter, up 5%, and adjusted net profit was EUR 188.1m, up 7.2%. Net debt as at 31 March 2026 was EUR 1,985.2m. The group confirmed its financial targets for the financial year 2026, which include net revenue of between EUR 2,730m and EUR 2,800m, with an adverse exchange rate impact of approximately -3.5%; ebitda of between EUR 995m and EUR 1,030m, with a margin of +/- 36.5%, and an adverse exchange rate impact of approximately -4.0%; and adjusted net profit of between EUR 655m and EUR 685m, with a margin of +/- 24.0%. The targets for the financial year 2027 also remain unchanged.

Barclays pointed out that the numbers for the first three months of 2026 were above the estimates given by the company's top management. "The ebitda margin of 39.7 per cent was higher by 163 basis points compared to the 38.1 per cent forecast by the company," pointed out the British bank's experts, who, however, continued to recommend caution on the shares ('equal-weight'), calculating a price target at EUR 48, the lowest level of the stock market prices. Barclays points out that the stock has already risen in recent weeks driven by the anticipation of the launch of an IPO by Cvc.

"Although we expect the shares to continue to outperform the segment due to the better-than-expected ebitda performance, the forecasts for the 2026 financial year and Cvc's proposed deal probably limit further significant upside potential," the analysts commented, recalling that the fund has already indicated a preliminary IPO price of €52 per Recordati share. This level, the experts noted, is however lower than the €55.7 that Cvc had collected in February 2025 from the sale of its 5% stake. The offer, however, is non-binding pending due diligence.