Justice referendum 22-23 March: political alignments and the crucial role of turnout

On Sunday 22 March (from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m.) and Monday 23 March (from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m.) the ballot boxes are open to vote in the confirmatory referendum on the constitutional reform on the separation of the careers of magistrates. The constitutional referendum on justice reform has already entered its most insidious phase: that of numbers. And the numbers say one clear thing: the outcome will depend not so much on who is convinced, but on who shows up at the polling station. Turnout again becomes the decisive political variable.

All centre-right parties (Fratelli d'Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati) are lined up for the yes vote. Roberto Vannacci, leader of the Futuro Nazionale movement, is also in the camp of support for the reform. In addition, Carlo Calenda, leader of Azione, spoke out in favour of 'Yes'.

A large part of the opposition forces are lining up for the 'No' vote. The secretary of the Democratic Party, Elly Schlein, is among the main voices of the 'No' camp, even if some members of the PD from the reformist area have openly sided with the 'Yes' camp. The 5 Star Movement led by Giuseppe Conte is also against. The 'No' camp also includes the Green and Left Alliance, led by Angelo Bonelli and Nicola Fratoianni.

Yes. Alongside the two main blocs there are also more nuanced positions. Riccardo Magi, secretary of Più Europa, declared his support for the referendum while acknowledging some technical uncertainties in the reform. Instead, Matteo Renzi's choice is different. The Italia Viva leader called the measure a 'reform', but decided to leave the vote free to his voters, announcing that he would only make his choice public on the eve of the consultation.

According to political analysts, the turnout, even though the confirmatory referendum does not require a quorum, will directly affect the outcome. For most observers,if the turnout does not exceed 40-43% of voters, a No vote is likely.