Reggio Calabria: first test to gauge Vannacci’s support

In Rome, few people talk about it, but everyone is thinking about it. The by-election for the Chamber of Deputies in the Reggio Calabria constituency – with the seat vacated by Francesco Cannizzaro (Fi), who was elected mayor, up for grabs – represents the first test at the polls for Roberto Vannacci. Not just any test. Because tomorrow and on Monday, a region that is a historic stronghold of Forza Italia, and because it is precisely from the ‘Azzurri’ that the general has, with great shrewdness, hand-picked his candidate: the doctor Domenico Giannetta, former leader of the Forza Italia group in the Regional Council who has since moved to Futuro Nazionale. A moderate figure with over 10,000 votes, chosen precisely to try to undermine the favourite: Fabio Roscioli, a heavyweight in Forza Italia, the party’s treasurer and a long-standing lawyer for Fininvest who is highly regarded by the Berlusconi family.

In this all-right-wing derby – which may well be a foretaste of what is to come in the general election, barring any last-minute alliances – the cardiologist Frank Benedetto, a former city councillor and leader of the PD group, is attempting to make his mark. He has returned to active politics after twenty years as the representative of a very broad coalition comprising 12 parties, ranging from IV to the M5S. ‘These by-elections,’ he said yesterday, ‘are a “test of strength” between the various coalitions. Ours is united; theirs are divided.’

It is easy to deduce from Vannacci’s own statements that he is using Calabria as a testing ground to gauge his actual appeal amongst those disillusioned with the centre-right, beyond the polls which put him at around 7 per cent (with an initial dip in recent days). In his latest appeal for votes, he posted a fake image on social media of Roscioli with Matilde Siracusano, the undersecretary and partner of the Calabrian governor Roberto Occhiuto, and Senator Claudio Lotito sitting at a table ready to tuck into a cake bearing the word ‘Calabria’. ‘They treat you like servants, like colonised people, like incompetents. On the 27th and 28th, reclaim your dignity and honour,” is the exhortation to the people of Calabria. The message is clear: to condemn what Vannacci’s supporters call “a candidate parachuted in from above, who doesn’t know Reggio”. “Voting for Fabio Roscioli,” attacks the founder of Futuro Nazionale, “means definitively legitimising that colonising xenophilia bearing the stamp of Occhiuto and Cannizzaro.”

Vannacci is aiming for a double-digit result. In fact, he even says he is convinced he can win. But beyond the banter, he is counting on the ‘Saxony-Anhalt effect’, comparing himself to the AfD and hoping to confirm with the figures a level of support that has so far been merely theoretical, so as to use it as a springboard for next year’s general election. The race is complicated. In 2022, Cannizzaro won his seat in his constituency with 66,000 votes (almost 48 per cent). Meanwhile, the combined total for the PD and M5S candidates, who ran separately, remained below 60,000. However, turnout was low (49.4 per cent). If turnout soars this time round, there will be a bit of a ‘Saxony effect’, given that voters in that German state queued up to cast their ballots.

“I’m very optimistic about the outcome,” said Cannizzaro himself, buoyed by the nearly 60,000 votes he secured in May’s local elections (65.7 per cent) and convinced that “anyone presenting themselves as an alternative to the centre-right does so without any real proposals, other than a few shouts and insults, see Vannacci”. Assessing the Forza Italia party’s standing in the region – at a time of great turmoil within the party and with eyes on the leadership of Antonio Tajani – is also important for the national political landscape. If the ‘Azzurri’ were to collapse where they are most firmly rooted, and the centre-left were even to win the seat thanks to votes taken from Roscioli by the ‘Futurists’, the consequences would be very serious. And a strong showing by Giannetta would in any case set off alarm bells within the coalition and could fuel a mass exodus towards Fn.