Regionals, the obstacle race to save Zaia

No to the third term, indeed yes. It starts again. And Palazzo Chigi's objective now becomes that of changing - and immediately - law 165 of 2004, the national law that sets the two-term limit for governors and that the Constitutional Court made prevail over the regional laws by rejecting that of Campania. With two objectives: to allow Luca Zaia's re-election in Veneto, pacifying the League and thus securing the government, and to throw the hot potato of Dem governor Vincenzo De Luca back into the opponent's camp, who could then run again in Campania, undermining the agreement between the PD and M5s on Roberto Fico.

But with what instrument? Considering that we are now on the eve of the regional autumn vote, the road of an ad hoc decree or an amendment to a measure already in the pipeline (one hypothesis is the Ddl on ballots in the municipalities or the one on the reduction of the number of councillors, both being examined by the Senate's Constitutional Affairs Committee) would meet with more than one objection from the Quirinale. The safest route remains a bill, but the timeframe would be longer.

For this reason, the idea of postponing the elections, for example in March, is also gaining ground in the majority. And here the risks are doubled: given that the date of the elections is decided by the regions in agreement with the government, some governors, such as Dem candidate Eugenio Giani in Tuscany, could call elections in the autumn anyway. Not only that: lengthening regional legislatures without a serious reason (last time there was the pandemic) could again meet with the perplexity of the Quirinal as well as, ad abundantiam, those of the Constitutional Court in the event of a possible challenge. Not to mention the fact that the 'soldier' to be saved, that is Zaia, is already in his third term of office: here it is up to the mastery of the Legahist minister Roberto Calderoli to find a legal solution to count only two terms so far.

In short, a third term is easier said than done. Also because Forza Italia's opposition remains, which would have to be compensated in turn. But there is a willingness to find a solution at Palazzo Chigi: it is true that Giorgia Meloni would give up the idea of nominating one of her men in Veneto, but it is also true that there are various dossiers on the table and among these the reform of the Rosatellum stands out. Up to now the League has turned a deaf ear to the hypothesis supported by Fratelli d'Italia and Forza Italia of a proportional system with a 55% majority prize for whoever exceeds 40% of the votes and with the prime ministerial candidate indicated on the ballot. But now, in exchange for the third mandate, the parties in Via Bellerio could get the go-ahead expected by the premier: a certain winner, without the lottery of the uninominal constituencies, especially in the South, and de facto 'election' of the premier even in the absence of the premierate. The exchange, from Meloni's point of view, vaut bien une messe.