Veneto Regionals, here's how much the Zaia list is worth and who it frightens

The centre-right's jigsaw puzzle on gubernatorial candidates for the autumn regional elections hinges on the agreement on the choice for the post Zaia. First of all, it must be decided whether Veneto is to continue to be led by the League (Salvini wants to nominate the federal deputy secretary and secretary of the Liga Veneta, Alberto Stefani) or whether it will instead pass to Fratelli d'Italia, which despite its excellent electoral performance in the north still does not have a governor. Zaia, who can no longer stand for another term, reiterated that he is ready to present a list in his own name, to represent "a large portion of the electorate that often does not vote centre-right". And in recent days he had recalled that a list with his name on it could still take '40-45%'.

Reliable numbers. The governor still enjoys a very broad and cross-party consensus. The Governance Poll of the Sole24Ore published on 7 July gave him a stable 66% approval rating (the second most-liked regional president after Friuli Venezia Giulia's Massimiliano Fedriga). In the regional elections of 2020 he was reconfirmed as governor with 76.8% of the votes and his Zaia list obtained 44.6% (the centre-left candidate Lorenzoni had stopped at 15.7%) compared to the 17% of the Carroccio, the second largest party in the region.

Certainly, the outgoing governor and his people do not want to give up playing a leading role in this game, and they are waiting to evaluate the proposals coming from Rome as long as they are not decisions dropped from above. In short, whoever governs the Veneto will have to reckon with Zaia, who could have the most councillors and dictate the future junta, to the detriment of the centre-right allies themselves. It is no coincidence that the latter have serious doubts about a list in his name. In particular, if Meloni were to renounce the Veneto, she would certainly not want to hear of a Zaia list, on paper capable of confirming herself as the first party in the region five years ago and 'overshadowing' the other centre-right parties.

In recent days Salvini has whispered that the Doge would see him well in government. A prospect that can only be realised if someone leaves. In the Leghist's mind, that someone is Piantedosi, i.e. the Minister of the Interior who would be hijacked in Campania (where, however, Edmondo Cirielli has already booked the candidature for FdI).