Intesa Sanpaolo Monitor

Regions hold their ground, trade surplus nears record levels

In the second quarter, the figure was -0.9 per cent, but the impact of the Arezzo-Turkey trade was a significant factor. The transport, metallurgy and food sectors performed well. The shock in the Middle East has been contained.

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

They are holding their own, despite everything. Despite international difficulties, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the slowdown in investment, Italy’s regional districts ended the second quarter with exports almost breaking even – a figure that turns positive if one excludes the slump in jewellery exports to Turkey, which was to be expected following last year’s anomalous surge.

The Intesa San Paolo Monitor’s findings show an average fall in exports of 0.9 per cent (following a 2.4 per cent decline in the first three months), with as many as 73 regions nevertheless recording growth.

Loading...

A comparison of the performance in the first and second quarters does indeed highlight an improvement across almost all the district’s supply chains, with the exception of fashion consumer goods. Following a first quarter in which exports had grown only in the districts specialising in transport equipment, metallurgy and food and drink, the industrial districts active in other intermediate goods and construction products and materials have also returned to positive territory, whilst other fashion-related intermediate goods remained largely stable, and the mechanical engineering and metal products sectors managed to limit the decline to below 1 per cent.

Also worth noting is the trade surplus, which stood at 24 billion for the quarter and 47 billion for the first six months – a figure that remains close to all-time highs.

The standout sectors in terms of the highest export values are jewellery from Valenza, metals from Brescia and mechatronics from Bari – three sectors that accounted for over 700 million in exports in the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2025.

Weighing down the figures, on the other hand, is gold from Arezzo, which has fallen by 1.3 billion (with the district’s exports almost halved), accounting for almost the entire decline across all districts. Whilst ingots are excluded from the surveys (the boom in exports to Switzerland, specifically from Arezzo, is driving national statistics), it is the jewellery sector that makes the difference, with the cessation of the exceptional sales of semi-finished products to Turkey in 2024 and 2025, as a result of legislation that restricted the purchase of bullion and, in any case, imposed tariffs on imports of gold from non-EU countries.

In terms of markets, whilst Turkey has seen a decline (with the UAE, the US and China also performing poorly), there has been widespread growth elsewhere, including in Switzerland and France, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.

The Middle East as a whole has been severely affected by the Hormuz crisis, with a decline of just under half a billion in the first half of the year, accounting for 13.2 per cent of exports to the region. The impact has been even more widespread, with declines of over 20 per cent in certain specific sectors such as gold from Arezzo and Vicenza, Carrara marble, and precision engineering from Bergamo.

It should be noted, however, that following an average fall of 21.6 per cent in the first quarter, the situation appears to be stabilising, with a 4.4 per cent decline in trade with the countries affected by the conflict between April and June.

“Our districts,” explains Giovanni Foresti, Head of Regional Research at Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, “are holding up remarkably well even in a challenging period such as the present one, demonstrating in particular a remarkable ability to seek out opportunities in multiple markets, despite the difficulties encountered in specific regions, such as the Middle East. The trade balance remains close to record highs, making a significant contribution to our economy. The outlook? The picture remains complex, and it is likely that inflation spikes in Europe could act as a brake on continental demand.”

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti