Employment contracts to be renewed for 2.5 million workers

The time factor is weighing heavily on contractual tensions, particularly in the services sector. In the private sector, within a few months, the number of workers whose contracts have expired will in fact rise from the current 1.1 million – as confirmed by the latest Istat figures – to well over 4 million by March, when the service sector agreements covering around 3 million employees are due to expire, following the expiry of agreements for other sectors at the end of the year, ranging from bus and tram drivers to footwear workers and graphic designers. Taking the latest Istat figures as a basis, the total number of employees awaiting contract renewal stands at 2.5 million (including the 1.4 million in the public sector) – approximately 19.2 per cent, or one in five – a sharp decline compared with a year ago: in September 2025, the figure stood at 43.1 per cent. After so much progress – thanks in part to the public sector – without renewals taking place within a reasonable timeframe, there is a risk that as early as next spring we will be back to the days when almost one in two private-sector workers was awaiting the renewal of their contract.

The issue of wages, which has been reignited by the new price dynamics – with inflation rearing its head once more – means that the time factor and the economic aspects of collective bargaining agreements are taking on even greater importance, so that workers awaiting the renewal of their employment contracts can regain their purchasing power. This is so significant that it played a key role in the framework agreement on representation between the 13 employers’ organisations (ranging from Confindustria and Confcommercio to the Co-operatives and craft trades) and the CGIL, CISL and UIL trade unions. The parties agreed to introduce a mechanism to protect wages against inflationary spikes whilst the contract is in force, with annual or biennial reviews to ensure that wages are periodically adjusted in line with inflation. This is already the case in the most progressive collective agreements, including that for the metalworking industry. It has also called for the timetable to be brought forward, with negotiations starting swiftly: proposals must be submitted six months before the contract expires, with a response within 30 days, precisely to avoid any gaps in contractual coverage.

Looking at the dynamics of the private sector, the industrial sector is in the most stable position. If we consider the 6.1 million workers covered by Confindustria collective agreements, broken down by expiry date, by the end of October nearly 5.8 million – or 94.1 per cent of the total workforce – had a collective agreement in force: from the metalworking sector to the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, and the rubber and plastics sector, discussions on renewal will not begin until well into 2028. For 365,000 workers, the contract will expire at the end of 2026: we are talking, for example, about graphic designers, bus and tram drivers, and footwear workers. On the other hand, there are around 100,000 workers whose contracts have only recently expired – in any case, less than 12 months ago – and for whom negotiations are currently underway, such as those in private security and the tanning industry. From this figure, we must subtract the 50,000 workers in the leather and umbrella sector who have recently renewed their contract with an overall increase of 204 euros per month once fully implemented. The longest delays – exceeding 12 months – affect a total of around 200,000 workers, or 3.3 per cent of the total. Among these are workers in the private healthcare sector, particularly in care homes, where rather complex negotiations are currently underway, especially regarding pay scales. In 2027, a number of major collective agreements will come up for renewal, including those for the fashion sector in March, the ceramics sector in June, and the food industry in November. Following this, at the end of the year, it will be the turn of the logistics, electrical and energy, and oil sectors, amongst others.

There is a certain buzz in the services sector. This week, Federdistribuzione, Filcams, Fisascat and Uiltucs carried out a trial run of the agreement on representation. In recent weeks, the trade unions have presented a joint proposal to all employers’ organisations – from Confcommercio to Confesercenti and the Co-ops – to Federdistribuzione, requesting a pay rise of 220 euros per month once fully implemented, and urging all trade associations to swiftly begin negotiations to renew, in good time, the contracts covering almost 3 million workers. Federdistribuzione was the first to respond and meet with them. The others have yet to come forward. Meanwhile, there has been no news for many months now regarding the renewal of the contract for pharmacy workers, which expires in 2024, whilst meetings are continuing between ABI and the trade unions regarding the renewal of the banking sector’s collective agreement, which has been in a stalemate for many months now, a situation with which the trade unions and workers are growing increasingly impatient.

After all, inflationary pressures are very strong and are felt in everyday life – in the shopping basket, utility bills, filling up with petrol, travel, leisure and consumption. In October, regulated energy prices rose from +25.9% to +59.5%, whilst unregulated prices rose from +22.5% to +29.4%. According to Istat, this meant that the NIC index recorded a monthly increase of +0.9 per cent and a significant annual rise of +5.4 per cent, up from September when it stood at +4.2 per cent compared with the previous month. And what about pay rises? They are not keeping pace. The hourly contractual pay index, in September 2026, remained unchanged from the previous month and rose by 2.5 per cent compared with September 2025; the year-on-year increase was 2.3 per cent in the private sector (3.3 per cent in agriculture, 2.6 per cent in industry and 2.1 per cent in private services) and 3.2 per cent in the public sector. This is therefore the second month in a row in which wages as a whole have risen by less than inflation, a trend that has been ongoing in the private sector since April. The budget measures, which confirmed the flat tax at 5 per cent, also had an impact on contractual pay rises.