Renewables: the closed door that Italia can open

2026 will be remembered as the year in which temperatures in the Mediterranean exceeded thirty degrees in June and in which the word ‘exception’ ceased to mean anything. Data from the Copernicus Service indicate that global greenhouse gas emissions have reached a new all-time high, whilst in Italia the electricity sector still generates over eighty per cent of its carbon dioxide from gas-fired power stations. But this is not a question of will: it is a question of market infrastructure.

The figures highlight a paradox that the country can no longer afford. On the roofs of Italian industrial buildings — 110,000 facilities according to Cerved — there lies a photovoltaic potential of 30 gigawatts, the equivalent of around ten medium-sized nuclear power stations. Less than a fifth of this potential has been installed. Those producing surplus renewable energy receive a price of around 58 euros per megawatt-hour through the dedicated feed-in scheme, compared with a market price averaging between 110 and 130 euros for the 2024–2025 period. The difference goes to the intermediary, not to those who have invested. On the other side of the market, energy-intensive industries — steelworks, paper mills, glassworks, ceramics, chemicals — pay 40 per cent more for energy than their French and German competitors, so whenever a geopolitical crisis causes energy prices to fluctuate, they must decide whether to produce in Italia or relocate. These are two categories of businesses that share the same Italian industrial DNA, the same manufacturing ethos, and the same exposure to international competition — and yet the system has never sought to bring them together directly so that they might support one another. One is entitled to ask why.

Added to this picture is a factor that no energy planning model had fully taken into account: the surge in electricity demand from data centres and artificial intelligence. Terna has recorded requests for high-voltage connections totalling over 60 gigawatts — almost a hundred times the capacity currently installed. The investments announced by hyperscalers in Italia between 2026 and 2028 exceed 25 billion. Electricity consumption by Italian data centres will rise from the current 4 terawatt-hours to over 21 by 2030. Without long-term contracts for renewable energy, this trajectory will drive up industrial prices and exacerbate dependence on imported gas.

However, the problem holds the key to its own solution. An adoption rate of even just thirty-five per cent of the potential on industrial rooftops would mean 10.5 gigawatts of new capacity and 13 terawatt-hours of energy traded annually — around sixty per cent of the increase expected from data centres by 2030. For a typical producer — for example, a small manufacturing business with an 800-kilowatt system — the very nature of the investment would change: today, by simply selling surplus electricity to a dedicated buyer, the plant pays for itself in 7.2 years and yields a return of 9.8 per cent per annum; whereas, if the surplus could instead be contracted directly with an industrial customer at a fair market price, the payback period would fall to 5.5 years and the return would rise to 13.4 per cent. The difference — nearly two years saved and an additional three and a half percentage points in return — is what transforms a marginal investment into a bankable one. For an energy-intensive consumer using 15 gigawatt-hours per year, this represents a structural saving of 420,000 euros per year, equivalent to 24 per cent on the energy component. Across the sector as a whole, this amounts to an annual benefit of over 1.6 billion. For the environment, this means 4.2 million tonnes of CO₂ avoided each year — equivalent to two million fewer cars — rising to 105 million tonnes over the plants’ useful life, with 2.3 billion cubic metres less gas to import.

Consequently, there is still no bridge between potential Italian producers and consumers of green energy. Yet all it would take is to allow them to deal directly with one another, through transparent and guaranteed long-term bilateral contracts, to set in motion a virtuous cycle that no public subsidy could replicate. The EU is moving in the same direction. The new regulation on the electricity market requires the removal of barriers to long-term contracts. The time for waiting is over.