Renewables, the market estimates investments of 8-10 billion in Italy in 2026

Between EUR 8 and 10 billion: these are the potential investments in Italy in 2026 in renewables and storage systems. The number emerges from a survey of participants at the second edition of the Italian EnergyTech Conference 2026, organised by Verdian, an independent renewable energy producer - headquartered in Amsterdam and with operational headquarters in Barcelona, of the Nuveen Infrastructure fund - and the consultancy firm Green Horse Advisory. On 22 January in Milan, it brought together around 200 participants, half of whom expect this figure - in particular, 23.9% expect investments of between €8 and €9 billion, while 24.8% expect more than €10 billion - while 23.9% estimate that the amount will be between €7 and €8 billion.

However, these numbers are up on the estimate from last year's conference, which indicated 7 billion in expected investments by 2025. As Terna reported (see also yesterday's Il Sole 24 Ore), it is a year in which 7.2 GW of new renewable capacity was installed - although slightly slower than the 7.5 GW of 2024, it is a big leap compared to the 1 GW of 2021 - and 1.7 MW of storage.

"The development we have seen in 2025 gives us optimism, we expect an even better 2026, in line with the Italian targets of 131 GW of renewable capacity by 2030," comments Alfonso Ortal Sevilla, CEO of Verdian. 'Tools such as Fer X, Macse, Ppa, Energy Release,' he continues, 'push projects and allow investments to be grounded. Italy confirms itself as the most attractive market in Europe today for renewables, in the long term: for its fundamentals, starting with an energy mix that still sees gas determining the price of electricity, higher than other countries, and which leaves room for the growth of renewables; and with the prospect of a reform of the connection process that can help resolve grid saturation. We also see a big acceleration in batteries, a market for which Italy outperforms Germany and the UK in terms of attractiveness. And a shift towards energy management: new manufacturers are moving towards multi-technology portfolio management based on data. We are entering a new paradigm, moving from pure power generation and infrastructure development to intelligent energy management'.

'The reasons why Italy is the main target of investors in Europe and beyond is a combination of factors, at a time when the US is pulling back on renewables,' adds Carlo Montella, managing partner of Green Horse Advisory, who continues: 'In France, government stability, which is now a feature of our country, is a problem. The Nordic countries generate little return on investment. Greece is too small a market. Spain has grown too much without the necessary network and accumulation stability. All this, added to the aforementioned incentive instruments and the room for growth in renewables given the still predominant weight of gas in the energy mix, makes our country a real opportunity for investors'.

Montella sees in 2026 and 2027 still a strong acceleration of new installed capacity, with greater volatility in the price of electricity: 'It will no longer be possible to remain passive, as Spain did, which now has to deal with curtailment (the disconnection of plants, ed.), negative prices, even up to last year's blackout. One solution is storage systems, the development of which Terna and the regulator are rightly pushing, because they allow the system to absorb the increase in capacity and strengthen the grid, making the system more flexible, resilient and adequate. The combination of solar energy and batteries could allow Italy to be a leading player in renewables for the next five to six years. If electricity demand grows, driven by electrification of consumption, mobility and data centres'.