Market

Residential, prices still rising (up to 3%) forecast for 2026

by Editors

26 January 2026

Various house models are arranged with a percentage symbol in the center, representing real estate market trends and financial analysis related to housing affordability and investment.

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The Italian property market is preparing for a still positive but increasingly selective 2026. According to forecasts by the Tecnocasa Group's Studies Office, next year should close with between 780 and 790 thousand purchases and sales, slightly up on 2025, sustained by demand for the main home and a credit market that continues to favour purchases.

"The data on the Italian real estate market is still positive," explains Fabiana Megliola, head of the Studies Office, "as is also shown by the figures for purchases and sales in the third quarter of 2025. There is constant interest in housing, especially for the main one, and the credit market, once again, represents a fundamental push to purchase".

On a national level, house values are expected to rise by between 1% and 3%, in line with the 2025 trend. A growth that does not affect all types equally: new, efficient or already redeveloped properties will hold up most of all, while dwellings in need of major renovation could experience significant declines.

The Cities

Lack of supply remains the main price-supporting factor, especially in the most dynamic urban areas and in neighbourhoods affected by regeneration or upgrading of connections.

In large cities, the scenario remains differentiated. The most marked growth is expected in Bari (between +4% and +6%), Milan, Rome, Naples and Turin (+2% / +4%). Florence and Verona are expected to be between +1% and +3%, while Bologna could record substantial stability. Genoa is the only large city with possibly declining values, between -2% and zero. Overall, the average of the large cities is estimated to increase between 1% and 3%.

Alongside the capitals, hinterland municipalities could also benefit from renewed dynamism, especially those that are well connected. Here, more and more buyers are concentrating in search of more affordable solutions and better living space than in the historic centres, which are now out of reach for a growing part of demand.

Tourist locations also remain attractive, with interest continuing to come from foreign buyers, particularly in areas with a greater international vocation.

Rents: rents still rising

The year 2026 is shaping up to be another difficult year for home seekers looking to rent. In large cities, rents are expected to rise by between 4% and 6%, driven by high demand and a supply that remains insufficient.

'The rise in rents,' explains Megliola, 'depends on good demand that clashes with a lower availability of properties. This is especially true in tourist cities and in those where there are houses left empty by choice of the owners'. A role will also be played by possible new municipal regulations on short-term rentals, which could push part of the offer towards the transitory or medium-term segment.