Residential, growth in purchases and values

However, the offer remains low, so that there is a decrease in the average discount achieved during negotiations (from -8 to -7.6%).

The growth in rents that has characterised the rental market in recent years is slowing down slightly, but the forecasts remain upwards: by the end of the year, Tecnocasa estimates an average increase in rents of between 4 and 6 per cent. However, the supply remains low. 'In many cities, the problem of short rentals remains,' Megliola observes, 'and there is also a widespread fear among landlords of running into defaulting tenants. Thus many properties remain vacant and empty.

In all this, Milan comes to a standstill for the first time. After reaching very high levels of rents (from 2020 to 2025 there was an increase of 20.6%), rents remain unchanged. 2-room apartments see a -0.4% (EUR 1,151 per month), 3-room apartments a -0.1% (EUR 1,567 per month).

75.4% of purchases are made for a first home. The shares for holiday homes and purchases for investment, on the other hand, fall slightly, returning to 2019 levels. Naples, Florence and Milan are the cities where the percentage of those buying for investment is highest (over 30%).

As far as energy class is concerned, there is a gradual renewal of the housing stock: purchases in class A and B (8.4%) and C, D and E (23.8%) are increasing. F, G remains the main one (67.8%), but it is declining.

The average age of buyers goes down from 44 to 43 years, reflecting the increase in young buyers: 31% are between 18 and 35 years old

On the other hand, the percentage of city residents who decide to move is increasing: 38.5 per cent. Bologna, Milan and Florence, probably due to the continuous rise in prices, are the areas that most push their citizens out of the urban perimeter; on the other hand, Palermo, Genoa and Bari prove to be the most welcoming, managing to keep the majority of residents.

But moving on to rents, there is a novelty: transitional contracts are growing, even surpassing, in Milan, free rent contracts. "This is the first time this has happened," said Piero Terranova, an analyst at the research office, during the conference. "In Milan, contracts with an agreed rent are growing, which until a few years ago did not exist in the city at all. The city's economy is also growing, and the city is becoming a centre of excellence in the field of renting

In this first half of 2025, EUR 27.8bn was disbursed for house purchases. An increase of 40.5% compared to the first half of 2024. 'But be careful,' emphasised Oscar Cosentini, President of Kìron Partner, 'this is a figure that must be read correctly: it is likely to become 20% at the end of the year, taking into account the final volumes. in fact, the previous curve must be considered, with the sharp drop (-25.4%) recorded in 2023.

Volumes, however, have grown a lot, both because of falling rates and because of Consap mortgages for young people guaranteed by the State. Not surprisingly, the average age of borrowers has fallen, from 40 to 39. The fixed rate remains the chosen one (94% of stipulations).

'The ECB now has a neutral monetary policy, but it may be that it will become expansionary, raising rates to 1.85 and inflaming the markets,' Cosentini explains. 'As for Italy, there is a solid increase in the mortgage market, and credit policies are prudent but inclusive.