The word from the manager: Columbia Threadneedle

'Rolls Royce relies on advanced technology and barriers to entry'

"Another stock we like is Germany's Munich Re and we are also watching with interest France's St Gobain."

Frederic Jeanmaire, gestore del fondo CT (Lux) Pan European Focus di Columbia Threadneedle Investments

3' min read

3' min read

Underweight on banking, overweight on industrials and technology. This is in a nutshell the position of Frederic Jeanmaire, manager of Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Ct Pan European Focus fund.

Geopolitical uncertainties pushed defence-related stocks in particular. Is there still room for growth?

Purely defence-related stocks have performed well this year, leading to a change in valuations. In addition, after the recent relaxation of ESG exclusions, more investors can hold these stocks in their portfolios. However, we believe it is useful to remain selective in this sector, as we are in all others, aware of the evolution of technologies, the impact of rearmament policies and also the pressure from the US to buy US products. We believe, in fact, that good results can be achieved by investing in diversified businesses, i.e. where a solid civil business is combined with an interesting exposure to the defence sector: Rolls and Safran are examples of this, selling aero engines for both civil and military use and with profitable after-sales activities.

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IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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Which European countries' price lists would be best to target at the moment and which sectors?

Our investment approach is predominantly bottom-up; therefore, we do not apply a geographic or sector filter as an initial element of the selection process. That said, there are some sectors in which we are more likely to see viable business models and others where opportunities are more limited. In general, we tend to avoid Oil & Gas, traditional utilities and basic chemicals, as these are commoditised sectors where companies have little control over price returns or growth. For these reasons, we also consider consumer goods and pharmaceutical companies to be more challenging, while the industrial sector presents itself as a universe rich in robust and competitive business models. In addition, we favour the technology sector, with high exposure to companies involved in the semiconductor production chain; we are convinced that artificial intelligence will require considerable processing capacity.

I COMPARABLES

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What advice would you give to an investor who wants to enter the European stock market?

Avoid sectors with standardised products and excessive competition, as well as companies that do not occupy a profitable position in the value chain. This philosophy leads us to underweight the banking and energy sectors today and, conversely, to overweight the industrial and technology sectors, investing in companies that have dominant positions in specific markets and that have the technology and supply necessary to capitalise on these positions, so as to generate and sustain high returns over the long term.

The unknowns you fear most?

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The macro outlook remains uncertain, and is likely to be even more so due to the unpredictable nature of the policies adopted by the Trump administration. This has an impact on both the economy and geopolitics, but the resilience shown so far by financial markets is encouraging: economic fundamentals remain reasonable and both companies and consumers have adapted well to the 'new' interest rate environment. Earnings growth looks solid and the path of interest rates in most economies is down, although not by much. However, the economic data are somewhat clouded by tariffs. In Q1, there was an increase in activity as companies attempted to anticipate the implementation of tariffs; Q2 saw a reduction in inventories and, as Q3 approaches, there is some ambiguity about the underlying levels of demand. At the same time, it is worth remembering that the economic impact of tariffs tends to manifest itself with a certain lag.

IL CONFRONTO

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And the companies with the greatest growth potential?

We like Rolls, one of the world's leading manufacturers of aircraft engines. The company benefits from advantages of scale and barriers to entry resulting from its advanced technology, particularly in the area of energy efficiency, which is good for airline profitability and reducing environmental impact. A key part of the business is long-term servicing: if aircraft sales decline, existing engines, which are now obsolete, need more servicing, which provides Rolls with a stable, low-capital revenue stream. Exposure to the defence sector is also attractive, as is exposure to the future small modular nuclear reactor business. Another stock we like is Munich Re, the world's leading reinsurance company. The latter benefits from advantages of scale that give it access to the best clients as well as a well-diversified portfolio and client base. In addition, positive interest rates contribute to profitability as they improve investment portfolio returns. Finally, we look with interest at St Gobain, a French construction materials company. The company revamped its management several years ago and the new team is much more focused on shareholder returns and better capital allocation, selling underperforming assets and buying others with the aim of improving returns. The company is well positioned to take advantage of the trend of more energy-efficient buildings and internal infrastructure-related growth in Europe.

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