Presidential elections

Romania on the vote, poised between sovereignism and the European Union

The annulment of the November result caused social rifts and instability: Simion, an anti-European, is favourite. Challenger Dan, progressive, has recovered positions

18 May 2025

Il duello. I manifesti elettorali dei candidati alle presidenziali in Romania: il filorusso George Simion (a sinistra) e il filoeuropeo Nicusor Dan

3' min read

A presidential election in a peripheral European country, at least in reference to the balance of the 'big boys' in Brussels. Yet the runoff being contested today in Romania carries significant weight, in domestic and international politics. A hard-fought election that should have taken place last November. Yes, because today's election in Romania is a repeat of the presidential elections, after the Constitutional Court invalidated the victory of pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu: Russian interference through TikTok. Months of political instability and heated internal debate ensued. Georgescu described the decision to repeat the elections as 'a fraud orchestrated by those who have made deception the only state policy'.

Among the two candidates, the favourite is George Simion, 38 years old, Eurosceptic, right-wing, who in the first round, 15 days ago, took 41% of the vote. Simion is the leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (Aur) party. The challenger is the mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, 55, an independent candidate, who obtained 21% of the vote. A moderate, pro-European.

The twenty-point gap between the two candidates, according to the polls, does not seem to reflect the voting intentions of the citizens; there would be a recovery of support for the challenger Dan. Beyond the polls - which have always resoundingly failed in the last six months - there are profoundly different views on society, foreign policy and the economy.

Dan is a pro-European, Simion wants to nationalise companies considered strategic. Known for his sovereignist positions and his 'no' to military aid to Ukraine, he has promised a 'Simionisation' of the European Union, while assuring loyalty to NATO and the maintenance of the American presence in the country. "I am the only candidate capable of guaranteeing the permanence of US troops in Romania". Simion hurled harsh criticism at the European Union, 'an entity that restricts Romania's decision-making and economic freedom'.

Dan went so far as to define the challenge with Simion as follows: 'It will not be a clash between two people, but between a pro-Western and a hostile, anti-Western orientation of Romania. That is why I ask all Romanians to be part of this battle',

What is at stake is no longer the traditional left-right division, but the clash between two Romanians who find it hard to recognise each other. Mihaela Iordache, of 'Osservatorio Balcani', explains it well: 'Simion is especially convincing in urban or rural or otherwise economically fragile areas, where people feel excluded from the benefits of European integration. Between cancelled elections, Ukraine's border war, economic instability and the energy crisis, fear has increased. The most vulnerable Romanian voters are receptive to populist messages'.

In this politically important challenge, communication and electoral strategy could be confusing: Simion, who is considered pro-Russian, repeated several times that 'Russia represents the biggest threat to Romania, in different forms'. Nevertheless, he went to Poland to support the conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, who is accused of being pro-Russian at home. Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, claims that the friendship between George Simion and Karol Nawrocki makes Moscow happy.

The elections in Romania are a test case for democracy in the digital age. The attention for this vote goes far beyond Bucharest and reaches Brussels. Not only because of Romania's membership in the EU and NATO.

Brussels is called upon to counter foreign interference without, however, exerting undue pressure in favour of pro-European candidates. The legitimacy and instrumentalisation of the use of social platforms is one of the key issues. Three themes intertwine: voter disillusionment, technological manipulation and geopolitical tensions. Another unknown relates to the axis that a Simion victory would produce within the EU, with a sovereignist alliance between Romania, Viktor Orban's Hungary and Robert Fico's Slovakia. Romania's most famous writer, Mircea Cartarescu, is in favour of the EU: 'The entry of Eastern countries into the EU and NATO has been crucial for their development.