Run-off or risk of a dead heat: Meloni at a crossroads

In the end, the run-off election breaks the long-standing taboo of centre-right and is at least recognised as a ‘matter for reflection’ (copyright Andrea De Priamo, Chair of the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee) in the Senate chamber.

The Trojan horse takes the form of the amendment announced in these columns on 28 August by Marcello Pera, former President of the Senate and now a senator for Fratelli d’Italia. Pera has received his party’s approval, but there is no official consensus amongst the centre-right parties: the Lega, in particular, remains staunchly opposed, fearing that, with the prospect of a run-off, Roberto Vannacci’s party – which stands at between 7 and 8 per cent in the polls – could make even greater gains in the first round at the expense of a Lega reduced to between 5 and 6 per cent. As for Forza Italia, plans to table an amendment similar to Pera’s have ultimately been shelved: there is political support – as explained within the party – but only if the proposal is endorsed by the entire coalition.

The truth, as the “brothers” explain off the record, is that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni herself has not yet made up her mind. There is still time until the plenary vote – the bill is due to be tabled on 9 September and the green light is expected on 15 September – to open up the Trojan horse and introduce a change that would bring the national system closer to that used for electing mayors in large municipalities. The amendment in question stipulates that the bonus will be triggered in the first round only if the leading list or coalition secures 48 per cent of the votes in both Houses; failing that, a run-off will take place between the top two lists or coalitions, provided both have secured 38 per cent of the votes in both Houses (a system of thresholds also designed to overcome any potential objections from the Constitutional Court: see Roberto D’Alimonte’s article on this subject on page 14). Furthermore, no further alliances are permitted after the first round: in short, there is no obligation to form an alliance with Vannacci (or with Calenda), but nothing would prevent voters from aligning their support. But the Prime Minister’s greatest fear is that, in the second round, that ‘all against one’ sentiment—already seen in the referendum on justice—might coalesce. Conversely, leaving the law as it stands, with the majority bonus awarded to whoever exceeds 42% by the widest margin, would, on paper, hand victory to the broad coalition (which is above 42 per cent in the polls, whilst the centre-right is slightly below) or produce the paradoxical effect of making the system proportional – and thus resulting in no winner at all.

As for the rest, the reintroduction of preferential voting with fixed list-toppers – which was rejected in the Chamber of Deputies in a secret ballot – has been confirmed, but the gender issue remains: there is no alternation for the list-toppers, but only from the second candidate downwards. In short, the first candidate may be a man provided that the second on the list is a woman. ‘A blow against women’, is the accusation levelled by all female opposition MPs, from Elena Bonetti of Azione to Luana Zanella of Avs. Six hundred and fifty amendments were tabled by the broad coalition for the purpose of filibustering, out of a total of 700. Eight of these are joint amendments, presented by the group leaders at a press conference, which provide for preferential voting for all MPs without ‘locked’ lead candidates, an end to the obligation to nominate a prime ministerial candidate – a requirement that sparked the feud over the primaries – and a 50-50 alternation of lead candidates. “We will stand firm,” promises Secretary Elly Schlein, “and we will continue to talk about the real problems facing Italians.”

There is also deadlock over the idea of a national run-off, despite the issue having long been a feature of the debate and the manifestos of the centre-left and the PD. “In all the proposals put forward by our political group, from D’Alema’s bicameral system to the Italicum, a national run-off election presupposed the abolition of the system of equal representation in the two chambers,” points out PD Senator Dario Parrini. “As it stands, it is unconstitutional.”