Airlines

Ryanair: jet fuel costs set to reach $2 billion in 2027. Profits down 15 per cent

The airline is launching a cost-cutting plan to offset fuel price rises. Passenger numbers rose by 6 per cent to 125.8 million, but revenue grew at a slower rate than passenger numbers

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Ryanair is implementing company-wide cost-cutting measures as part of a plan to offset a €2 billion rise in fuel costs next year, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up oil prices. The airline will review its airport agreements, consider reducing the crew-to-passenger ratio and may increase its use of artificial intelligence to cut costs.

The Irish airline made this statement after reporting a 15 per cent fall in net profit for the first half of the financial year ending in September 2026: over the six-month period, the group recorded a net profit of 2.15 billion euros, compared with 2.54 billion in the same period the previous year. The main factors weighing on results were the rise in fuel prices not covered by hedging operations and weak ticket prices, which fell by 4 per cent despite the summer season.

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Passenger traffic reached 125.8 million, representing a 6 per cent increase year-on-year. Total revenue rose by 3 per cent to €10.08 billion, whilst operating costs rose by 10 per cent to €7.69 billion. This trend highlights the difficulty of passing on the full cost increase to final prices, even during a period of rising demand.

The main challenge remains the cost of jet fuel. According to the company, the price of fuel not covered by hedging has doubled, reaching around $130 per barrel. The group has hedged around 80 per cent of its requirements for the current financial year at a price of around $67 per barrel, thereby limiting the impact of energy price volatility on its accounts; however, from next March, this hedging cover will fall to 25 per cent at around $95 per barrel. In the absence of a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, the group expects jet fuel prices to remain high well into 2027.

On the commercial front, revenue from scheduled flights rose by just 1 per cent, to around 7 billion euros, against a 6 per cent increase in passenger traffic. The average fare fell from €58 to €55.70. Ancillary revenue (hand luggage and other ancillary services), however, rose by 6 per cent to €3.08 billion, helping to underpin turnover.

The combination of lower prices and higher costs is reflected in the operating profit, which fell by 16 per cent to €2.40 billion. In the second quarter alone – the three months ending in September – net profit fell by 6 per cent to €1.61 billion, whilst revenue rose by 4 per cent to €5.70 billion.

Looking ahead to the coming months, Ryanair has revised its passenger forecast for the full 2027 financial year down from 216 million to 214 million, whilst it expects winter traffic, between November and March, to remain broadly stable compared with the same period last year.

The commercial outlook shows mixed signals. The company reports that demand for the third quarter is strong and that fares are rising at a slightly faster rate than a year ago. The booking window, however, has shortened, reducing visibility on future results. Booking trends for the school holidays in October and November and for the Christmas period will be decisive for how prices develop.

For this reason, the group has not provided a specific forecast for net profit for the full financial year.

The new Boeing 737 MAX-10s are expected to make a significant contribution to the strategy. Ryanair plans to take delivery of the first 16 aircraft in spring 2027, subject to European certification, which is expected by the end of 2026. The airline aims to exceed 220 million passengers in the following financial year, representing growth of around 3 per cent, and maintains its target of over 300 million passengers a year by 2034.

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The financial position remains a key element of the strategy. As at 30 September, gross liquidity stood at €2.6 billion, following debt repayments of €1.3 billion, capital expenditure of approximately €0.8 billion and distributions to shareholders of approximately €0.4 billion. The company also has a revolving credit facility of €1.1 billion, of which approximately €700 million remains undrawn. In May, the group repaid its final bond of €1.2 billion.

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