Saipem on shields with oil sector, crude oil rises after Opec+ meeting

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Saipem on the shields at Piazza Affari, as well as the entire oil sector in general. The Italian group's stock is trading at session highs around EUR 2.333, while the FTSE MIB is moving at a much slower pace. Supporting the shares' performance is the surprise rise in oil prices (+1.75 per cent to USD 62.95 per barrel for Wti, +1.77 per cent to USD 66.66 for Brent), after theOpec+ decided over the weekend to increase crude oil production again, in a strategy that analysts interpreted as an attempt to gain a larger market share in crude oil sales.

The organisation surprisingly opted for a 137,000 barrels per day production increase for October, also scaling back the last 1.65 million barrels per day tranche of voluntary cuts. "The rebound in oil prices could be attributed to a mix of factors: lower production increases as compared to the previous two months, the need to verify whether theoretical levels will then actually be translated into higher production/exports and doubts on the possibility of a short-term truce in the war in Ukraine due to the intensification of attacks in the last period," explain Mps analysts. Moreover, as Equita's experts add, "the actual increase in production in October will probably be lower than the indicated target, due to continuous compensation commitments by countries that have exceeded production limits in the past and constraints limiting production in some member countries, such as Russia and Iraq". Argus estimates that the Group of Eight increased production by 1.35 million barrels per day between April and August, well below the theoretical quota increase of 1.92 million for the period.

Returning to Saipem, expectations are also rising for the extraordinary shareholders' meetings, set for 25 September, toapprove the merger project between Saipem and Subsea7. New details emerge from the documents on the agreement prepared ahead of the meetings, especially on the conditions required for the operation to go ahead. Among the most relevant aspects is the listing of the new entity in Oslo as well, and the extent of the corrective measures that may be imposed by the Antitrust Authority (if divestments to protect competition in excess of EUR 500 million were imposed, the parties could back out). The closing of the transaction is still expected in the second half of 2026.