Saipem ranks among the best; analysts are positive about order intake and the quarter’s performance

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Saipem is surging on the Milan Stock Exchange and outperforming the entire energy sector: the share price has risen by around four points, driven by positive analyst ratings. In a report, JP Morgan raised its target price for the share to €5.89, up from the previous €4.70, whilst in another report, Citi analysts have revised their margin and EPS targets upwards ahead of the second-quarter results, which are due to be released on 27 July.

“New order intake in the second quarter showed a solid improvement compared with the first quarter, underpinned by continued commercial activity in the Middle East, as well as in other geographical areas,” say Citi’s analysts. On the operational and logistical front, the analysts write, although a number of inbound and outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been successfully completed, some critical equipment is yet to arrive in Qatar in the coming weeks.

This poses a short-term execution risk should further delays occur. Citi has revised its forecast margins for the Asset-Based Services business upwards for the period 2027–2030, reflecting the expectation that the favourable offshore cycle will remain in the middle phase of its current expansion. Analysts expect “a gradual improvement in profitability”.

For 2028, they estimate an EBITDA 8 per cent higher than previous forecasts, thanks to higher margins. However, estimates for the offshore drilling business have been revised downwards to take account of the divestment of the shallow-water drilling operations, announced on 24 June and due to be completed in the third quarter of 2026. Overall, following these adjustments, Citi has raised its earnings per share estimates for the period 2026–2030 by an average of 6%. The ‘buy’ rating is confirmed with a target price of €5.10.