Saipem weighed down by a quarter’s results below expectations and a cut in its EBITDA guidance

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Quarterly results below expectations and the downward revision of the 2026 EBITDA guidance are weighing on Saipem on the Milan Stock Exchange. Shares in the oil group failed to gain ground at the opening and fell by as much as 9 per cent. The share price – which has nevertheless risen by over 67 per cent since the start of the year – is also being affected by falls in the price of crude oil.

Turning to the financial results, Saipem closed the first half of 2026 with an adjusted net profit of 131 million euros (-6.4 per cent). Revenue stood at 7,345 million (+1.9 per cent), adjusted EBITDA at €836 million (+9.4%), whilst new orders secured totalled €5.7 billion, up 33% compared with the same period last year, to which must be added €2.3 billion in orders already secured in July.

Looking ahead, however, the company led by Alessandro Puliti has revised downwards its 2026 estimates for adjusted EBITDA, now expected to stand at €1.75 billion, to take account of the additional costs already incurred in connection with the crisis in the Middle East. The revenue forecast has been confirmed at 15.5 billion, operating cash flow (net of lease payments) is expected to be around €1 billion, capital expenditure around €450 million and free cash flow (net of lease payments) around €600 million. Saipem went on to emphasise that, from a commercial perspective, the results achieved in the first seven months of the year, together with the numerous opportunities currently under discussion, ‘reinforce our confidence that order intake in 2026 will exceed that of 2025’.

These figures did not fully satisfy the analysts. Banca Akros described the results as ‘mixed’. Indeed, second-quarter revenue (3,817 million) exceeded the investment bank’s estimates, ‘confirming the solid execution of projects, despite the logistical difficulties’ caused by the war in Iran. However, profitability was “well below expectations, reflecting around 70 million euros in additional logistical and operational costs in the Middle East”. Furthermore, Akros explains, reported EBITDA was also negatively impacted by redundancy costs amounting to 35 million euros. “Although the downward revision of EBITDA is clearly negative,” the experts write, “the confirmation of cash flow forecasts for the 2026 financial year and the solid commercial momentum offer some cause for reassurance.”

Equita’s commentary is along the same lines, suggesting that the most negative aspects of the results relate to the guidance. “At present, we believe that the effect” of the expected slowdown in EBITDA “may only partially extend into 2027, with a low-single-digit impact, but the warning nevertheless reduces visibility on the resilience of margins in the Middle East,” say the experts. Despite this, “the confirmation of revenue, cash flow and commercial momentum limits the fundamental downside and suggests that the problem is more linked to temporary and potentially recoverable extra costs than to a deterioration in execution or demand”.