Majority

Salvini puts the brakes on Meloni’s bid for the Quirinale: ‘I can see her as prime minister in autumn 2027’

And the League says no to the preferential voting system favoured by Fdi

by Emilia Patta and Manuela Perrone

Matteo Salvini ministro infrastrutture e la presidente del Consiglio Giorgia Meloni (Imagoeconomica)

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The League is applying the double handbrake: on Giorgia Meloni’s candidacy for the Quirinale and on voting preferences. But on the electoral law, Fdi is not giving up and still has faith in mediation, all the more so following the one-week postponement of the vote in the Chamber of Deputies, from 7 to 14 July, decided by the Conference of Group Leaders alongside a cap on the duration of the debate, limited to 22 hours.

Salvini’s coldness

The centre-right’s key figures could meet again on 2 July, two days before the summit on Tuesday, where the League had already made its stance clear. On 1 July Matteo Salvini showed his indifference towards a proposal he felt was being imposed on him rather than one he supported (“‘I don’t have time to deal with it, I’m not keen on it; the important thing is to have a law that allows whoever wins to govern’) and, above all, made no secret of his coolness towards the idea of the Prime Minister moving to the Quirinale: ‘I can see Giorgia Meloni doing well anywhere, but I can see her doing well as the new Prime Minister in the autumn of next year. But we still have more than a year’s work ahead of us, so it’s too early to talk about any of this.’

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Lega Nord member Molinari: ‘The reform is already a compromise’

Meanwhile, the Lega’s group leader in the Chamber of Deputies, Riccardo Molinari, pointed out that the Carroccio had already made far too many concessions on the new voting rules. “This electoral law,” said Molinari, speaking as a guest on Start on Sky Tg24, “stems from an agreement between the majority parties and was requested primarily by Fdi and Meloni, in the name of stability. We in the Lega, who are deeply rooted in the local communities, especially in the North, believe that the best model was the one we had before, with constituencies.” The reform was only accepted because of the agreement within the centre-right, Molinari added, “but it’s not as though other parts can now be called into question. This text is already the result of a compromise; constantly adding ‘one more’ creates difficulties.”

The Northern League leader on the Belgian model

Lega members are not keen on the hybrid proposal put forward by Meloni’s emissaries, Giovanni Donzelli in particular, which is inspired by the Belgian model: a closed list that also gives voters who so wish the option to cross out candidates they favour after the first two. With an eligibility threshold that remains very high and a complex system of vote transfer, this mechanism – as the Democrat Dario Parrini observes – ‘only very rarely allows the closed list to be unblocked. The proportion of those who manage to break through it ‘is historically very low: around 10 per cent of the total number of those elected in the last election, and even less in the past’.”

For the League, this would favour Fdi and the PD

For the League (and also for Forza Italia), this is not a welcome change. Molinari made this clear: ‘The system of two fixed lead candidates followed by preference votes does not convince us because, in effect, it would serve only one purpose: to strengthen the strongest parties, the PD and FDI. Preferential votes favour those with more money to spend and greater resources for campaigning. I would like to point out that the reason preferential votes no longer exist is because Italians voted in a referendum in the early 1990s to abolish them.”

Meloni’s supporters fear intervention by the Constitutional Court

But Fdi has no intention of giving up. And the reason for its insistence goes beyond electoral mechanics and defending itself against the barrage from Roberto Vannacci, who is attacking the closed lists. The fear is that the Constitutional Court might intervene with an additional ruling, imposing a preference system by decree in the event of a pre-emptive appeal against the Melonellum. The broad opposition coalition has already declared itself ready to lodge such an appeal. There is a precedent: in 2014, the Porcellum was struck down by the Constitutional Court because the long closed lists made the system ‘neither comparable with other systems characterised by closed lists for only a portion of the seats, nor with others that provide for such a small number of candidates as to ensure that they are effectively recognisable’.

The theory of an exchange involving the weight in the plank

Avoiding intervention by the Court is the reason why, between now and 14 July – when voting begins – negotiations within the centre-right will continue. And sources within the ruling coalition do not rule out the possibility that the League might soften its stance on preferential voting in exchange for greater influence over the list of 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate that would be secured through the majority bonus.

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