Sardinia, depopulation costs over 1.7 billion euro in production capacity

It is not just a question of inhabitants and residents slowly dwindling. Sardinia's demographic crisis also has a price that is worth more than EUR 1.7 billion in production capacity. This is underlined by the Confindustria Sardegna report 'The cost of depopulation: demography and productive capacity'. According to the study, the island is in a more critical condition not only than the rest of Italia, but of Europe as a whole. In 2024, the average number of children per woman has dropped to 0.91, the lowest value on the entire European continent and higher than only the Canary Islands, among the territories belonging to the European Union.

It is no better for the birth rate, 'the lowest in Europe', which stands at 4.5 births per thousand residents, while the proportion of the population aged 65 and over has now reached 27.4 per cent. At the same time, residents between the ages of 0 and 14 account for just 9.7 per cent of the population. Not surprisingly, the median age of residents, at 51.7 years, is also approaching yet another negative European record for the island, being surpassed only by two other regions. 'The loss of residents is not just a statistical issue: we are losing young people, families, work and productive capacity,' emphasises Andrea Porcu, director of Confindustria Sardegna. 'Even if we were not at the bottom of the European demographic rankings, the situation would still be problematic due to insularity, which would make it complex to manage the problem: but with these numbers, the picture is truly disarming.

There is another aspect that is highlighted by the report: the working-age population is shrinking: 'In 2005 Sardinian residents between the ages of 15 and 64 accounted for 69.6 per cent of the population; by 2025 this share will have fallen to 62.8 per cent,' the report states. 'With the same overall population, if Sardinia had maintained the demographic structure of 2005, it would today have 106,000 more working-age residents. The Centro Studi has transformed this demographic gap into an economic estimate, applying the employment rate and added value per employee to the individual municipalities. "The result is a potential loss of 44,238 employees and approximately EUR 1.705 billion in production capacity," the director emphasises. A more conservative simulation, constructed using only the added value per employee in services, still leads to an impact of approximately one and a half billion euro'.

The comparison with the international scenario is no more fortunate. "Sardinia has a demographic structure that is even more fragile than that of South Korea, commonly indicated as an emblematic case of the demographic crisis," the study continues. Although it has a slightly higher fertility rate than Korea, the island has an already much older population and a significantly lower quota of residents of active age. What is more, in the Asian country the demographic crisis is especially evident in the metropolis of Seoul, which is certainly better able to cope with it than the rural contexts of Sardinia, where, on the contrary, the situation is more serious than in the cities'.

In centres with a population of up to 1,000 inhabitants, the average age is more than three years higher than in urban centres. 'The phenomenon does not only concern the closure of schools or the reduction of services, but directly affects the ability of territories to attract families, workers and companies, in areas that are already structurally marginal and at risk of economic and social desertification,' Porcu concludes. 'Demography is not an external variable with respect to economic development, but a fundamental determinant of it. Companies and institutions must work together to build an environment that is capable of retaining young people, but also of attracting workers, students and entrepreneurs from outside'.