Oil

Saudi Aramco: Debt at three-year high and coupon cut by a third

The results of the Saudi oil giant have a direct impact on the kingdom's finances. And after a weak first quarter the scenario (also due to Opec+ policies) has become even more difficult

 (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)

2' min read

2' min read

The price war that has unleashed on the oil market is likely to cost Saudi Arabia dearly, burdening an already stressed state budget. A further wake-up call came from the quarterly report of Saudi Aramco, which on Sunday 11 - publishing falling profits and a debt that jumped to a three-year high - confirmed a one-third reduction in dividends.

The coupon, which is a major source of revenue for the kingdom's coffers, is reduced by some USD 10 billion for the January-March period, to USD 21.4 billion, in line with the company's indications in March.

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After all, the Saudi oil giant continues to prove more resilient than the Western majors: in the three months, net profit fell by just 4.6% to the equivalent of USD 26 billion, beating analysts' expectations. But free cash flow collapsed to $19.2 billion (-15.8%), insufficient to finance dividends, however small.

Aramco's net debt rose sharply in the quarter, by as much as 18% to USD 24.6 billion, a level it had not touched since 2022, although leverage is not at alarmingly high levels: it rose to 5.3%, up from 4.5% at the end of 2024.

Looking ahead, however, the situation is likely to worsen due to the fall in oil prices, which has intensified since April - thus after the end of the first quarter - partly also due to the change of course on Opec+ production policies that Riyadh itself seems to have inspired.

On 3 April - in the aftermath of Donald Trump's announcement of 'reciprocal' tariffs - eight Opec+ countries surprisingly accelerated their withdrawal of production cuts. The reasons for the decision, which in addition to the Saudis involves other Persian Gulf bigwigs and Russia, are not entirely clear. But the effect on barrel prices, already weighed down by fears of a global recession, is evident: Brent crude recently sank below 60 dollars, to four-year lows, and has never fully recovered (although on Monday 12 it was trading around 66 dollars, up more than 3% after the initial US-China agreement on duties).

The weak market is also a threat to the finances of the Saudi kingdom, which is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. Oil-related state revenues - which last year accounted for more than 60% of the total - shrank by 18% in the first quarter of 2025 (to around USD 40 billion) and the budget deficit almost quintupled to USD 15.65 billion from USD 3.3 billion a year earlier, according to data released on 5 May by the Ministry of Finance. The Saudi state - partly through the sovereign wealth fund Pif - controls over 97% of Aramco. The rest is listed on the Tadawul, Riyadh's stock exchange.

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