The government's estimate

School drop-outs falling: in 2024 to 9.8 per cent, then down to 9.7 per cent

The report on Bes annexed to the public finance document confirms the downward trend until 2028, but the South still lags behind

by Eugenio Bruno and Claudio Tucci

perspective wooden plate over blur classroom for background

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Early school leaving, with all its harmful consequences for students' skills and their (future) labour productivity, is notoriously one of the great evils of Italian education. Hence any news that can help our country reduce the number of drop-outs is worthy of attention. This applies to the additional allocation of 3 million euro that the Maturity Decree (Decree-Law 127/2025), approved at first reading in the Senate last Wednesday, has earmarked for the Agenda Sud plan launched by Minister Giuseppe Valditara with the resources of the NRP (which, together with Agenda Nord, has reached a total funding of 1 billion 40 million euro, ed.) to keep southern students in school. It also applies to any improvement in the general drop-out index that brings us closer to the EU.

The Mef Report

Un aggiornamento su quest’ultimo fronte è contenuto nella relazione con gli Indicatori di benessere equo e sostenibile, che il ministero dell’Economia ha allegato al Documento programmatico di finanza pubblica (Dpfp) inviato in Parlamento. Alla voce «uscita precoce dal sistema di istruzione e formazione», cioè i ragazzi tra i 18 e i 24 anni con al massimo la licenza media, ci sono almeno un paio di notazioni salienti. La prima riguarda il recente passato. E, più precisamente, il fatto che nel 2024 - si legge nel documento - l’andamento dell’indicatore si mantiene su una traiettoria discendente (al 9,8% per la precisione) al punto da attestarsi per la prima volta sotto il 10 per cento, raggiungendo così con un paio d’anni in anticipo l’obiettivo concordato nel Pnrr per il 2026 (10,2 per cento). La seconda notazione è racchiusa nella previsione che la dispersione avrà una sostanziale stabilità fino al 2026, per poi scendere al 9,7% nel 2027 e confermarsi allo stesso livello nel 2028 (come t

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GLI EARLY SCHOOL LEAVERS IN ITALIA

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The South lags behind

Of course, the national figure is valid up to a certain point, given the situation of different speeds between North and South, with the southern regions having, on average, the highest indicator compared to Italy as a whole (Campania at 13.3%, Sardinia at 14.5% and Sicily at 15.2%, are the most obvious examples). Not to mention the internal gaps within the Mezzogiorno itself. Compared to Molise, at 4.8%, there is a difference of almost ten points between the lowest and highest value.

However, the hopeful improvements on the dispersion front came from the southern regions, in particular Campania, followed by Apulia and Sicily, where the opposite contributions came from Lazio and Marche.

The Impact of Agenda South

In short, Agenda Sud seems to be yielding its first concrete results. With the topping-up of resources ordered by Valditara, the number of schools involved in this programme will rise to 2,164, and the schools with the greatest fragility, to which a special grant of 150,000 per school will be allocated, will increase from 245 to 600.

ISTAT, in its recent survey on educational poverty, drop-outs and dispersion, transmitted to the Senate's Education Committee, also confirmed Italy's progress. A dispersion rate of 9.8 per cent in 2024 in the 18-24 age bracket is a significant figure, even though foreign children are in a much worse condition than their Italian peers (24.3 per cent against 8.5 per cent) and the share of young people who finish school early among those living in large cities is above average (10.9 per cent).

The decrease in explicit dispersion, together with the increase in the youth employment rate, has also reduced the Neet, that is, those who do not work and are not in training: in 2024, in the 15-29 age group, we are down to 15.2 per cent (we were 23.7 per cent in 2020). But we exceed 20 per cent in Calabria (26.2 per cent), Sicily (25.7 per cent), Campania (24.9 per cent) and Apulia (21.4 per cent); and among young women the Neet quota continues to be higher (16.6 per cent) than among men (13.8 per cent).

This 'return' to school of excluded children, however, is changing the classes somewhat, as Invalsi reminded us last July when presenting the data of the 2025 national surveys: in high school, from 2019 to 2025, the percentage of regular students increased by 4.1 points; however, students with lower learning levels entered. And so the implicit dispersion on leaving school, that is, inadequate preparation for graduation, rose from 6.6% in 2024 to 8.7% in 2025. An alarm bell not to be underestimated.

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