Security and diversification: the role of gas in the energy transition

What is essential is invisible to the eye, but the energy crisis and recent geopolitical tensions — from the critical situation in the Strait of Hormuz to the resulting surge in commodity prices — have once again made it clear just how much natural gas forms the backbone of our system. For years, we have viewed gas as a resource to be phased out as quickly as possible, driven by a narrative that saw the development of renewables as the only immediate and viable solution to the energy transition. However, the reality of the situation has shown that the transition cannot ignore a molecule that ensures, every day, the stability of the European and Italian energy systems. Based on indisputable figures.

In Italia, gas is not just a fuel, but a guarantor of stability: it balances out the intermittent nature of solar and wind power in electricity generation (accounting for around 40%), heats 70% of homes and powers the high-temperature processes of our manufacturing industry, where electrification is not yet a viable solution. The figures today show that the energy content of the gas consumed annually in our country is roughly double that of electricity. And the past speaks for itself too: this is a resource that has underpinned our country’s economic development since the post-war period, enabling Italia to keep climate-changing emissions half those of Germany, thanks to the replacement of more polluting fuels such as coal.

The illusion that we could do without gas in the short term has come up against a structural weakness: Europe produces less than 10% of the gas it consumes, and Italia less than 4%. Whilst giants such as the United States lead the way in exports and China increases domestic production, the Old Continent has found itself exposed to the fluctuations of a contested global market. This is also because, with the world’s population set to reach 9.5 billion by 2050, natural gas is the only energy source capable of replacing coal on a large scale in Asia and Africa, representing the most effective tool available for an immediate reduction in global emissions.

Following the decline in consumption during the two-year period 2022–2023, as a result of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, we have seen demand in Europe first stabilise and then recover. This has happened despite the increase in renewable capacity, demonstrating just how complex and risky it is to push for forced electrification that fails to take into account the resilience of existing infrastructure. Putting energy back at the heart of European policy also means recognising the value of this resource: not an obstacle to sustainability, but the essential bridge to cross it without compromising the security and competitiveness of the continent.

In Italia, as mentioned, natural gas remains an indispensable pillar of the national electricity system, accounting for over 40% of total generation, with peaks exceeding 50% during the winter months. Despite the expansion of non-dispatchable renewable sources, which have seen their installed capacity grow by 60% over the last five years, their actual contribution to total generation has increased to a much more modest extent, rising only from 13% to 18%. This discrepancy highlights how growth in installed capacity does not automatically translate into available energy. Even electrochemical storage systems, although expanding, are not yet capable of significantly reducing gas consumption: during the winter, the lack of surplus production limits their recharging, whilst in the summer they are unable to fully cover night-time demand.