Sicily and Sardinia, increasing drought in the future

Climate change has increased the probability of drought in Sardinia and Sicily by 50 per cent. And the situation is set to worsen. This is the conclusion reached by a study by World Weather Attribution, an organisation founded in 2015 by climatologist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (who died in 2021) and Friederike Otto in which researchers from several major European institutions and beyond collaborate, which focused on Sardinia and Sicily, islands affected by extreme drought. "Sardinia and Sicily," says Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute of Imperial College London, "are becoming increasingly arid due to climate change. Prolonged scorching heat is affecting the islands more and more frequently, causing water to evaporate from soils, plants and reservoirs'.

The World Weather Attribution analysis (15 researchers from universities and meteorological agencies in Italy, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands worked on it) points out that such droughts will worsen as global warming increases, even by a fraction. Three points emphasised by the researchers: the persistent heat evaporating water from soils, plants and reservoirs is causing the increase in droughts; without the effects of man-made global warming, droughts on both islands would not be classified as extreme; and the Italian islands will continue to experience more severe droughts if the exploitation of fossil fuels continues. 'Climate change is making Sardinia and Sicily warmer,' explains Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London. Crops used to produce iconic Italian dishes, such as wheat and olives, are dying because of the scorching heat well above 40 degrees. To prevent the situation from getting even worse, we must stop burning fossil fuels'.

The scenario drawn by researchers, in the absence of substantial action on the climate change front, is worrying: with a two-degree increase in temperature, which could happen as early as 2050, drought in Sardinia and Sicily will become increasingly frequent and intense. 'In Sicily,' explains Luigi Pasotti, director of the Sicilian Agrometeorological Information Service Sicily East, 'the drought that we classify as extreme today will become exceptional if the global temperature rises by just 0.7 degrees. This is why it will be crucial to develop adaptation strategies to protect vital sectors for Sicily and Sardinia, such as agriculture and tourism, but it will be equally important for Italy to respect international agreements on reducing emissions'.

There remains, of course, the issue of water networks and water systems in the two regions. 'In Sardinia,' it says, 'challenges persist, particularly with regard to high water losses and ageing infrastructure. In 2022, Istat identified a 52.8 per cent water loss through the water distribution system on the island (Istat, 2024). Furthermore, while surface water sources meet about three-fifths of the total regional water demand, they often have quality problems. This is largely attributed to pollution from poor sewage systems, inadequate treatment facilities and the excessive application of nutrients in agricultural practices'.

The disappearance of Lake Pergusa and the alarming condition of other Sicilian water reservoirs (such as Lakes Fanaco, Ogliastro, Pozzillo and Disueri) highlight the poor state of water resources in Sicily: since the beginning of 2024, serious water shortages have necessitated rationing in more than 50 municipalities. In Sardinia, the situation is equally bleak, with water reserves such as the Flumendosa Alto Lake reduced to less than 50 per cent of their capacity, necessitating severe restrictions on water use. A striking example of the severity of this situation can be found in the Posada district, where irrigation has been banned to prioritise the availability of drinking water. 'The impacts of these droughts have been shocking, but unfortunately they occur more frequently due to climate change,' says Maja Vahlberg, climate risk advisor at the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre. Limiting water loss due to ageing, leaking pipes and increasing storage capacity in Sardinia and Sicily will help reduce similar water shortages in years with low rainfall"..