Defence

Sixth-generation fighter jet: the joint project between Germany, France and Spain is coming to an end. Uncertain times for the GCAP

Marrone (IAI) on the suspension of the Future Combat Air System: ‘The intention to cooperate on drones and the fighter jet’s cloud system amounts to nothing. If, as seems likely, London honours its commitments despite internal political difficulties, the GCAP becomes more attractive to potential partners such as Canada and Germany’

by Andrea Carli

Un modello in scala del Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF) franco-tedesco-spagnolo, il caccia di sesta generazione.  REUTERS

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Key points

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

After years of preparation, the FCAS project, the programme involving France, Germany and Spain for sixth-generation fighter jets, has come to an end. According to German government sources, in fact, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and French President Emmanuel Macron have concluded that the companies Dassault and Airbus are unable to reach an agreement on the construction of a joint fighter aircraft. On Friday, the two leaders attended the EU-Balkans summit in Montenegro. This provided an opportunity to take stock of the situation, which is now definitive. Macron and Merz agreed that the countries involved in the project known as the Future Combat Air System (or SCAF, ‘Système de combat aérien du futur’) will continue to develop a drone system and a related data network.

In reality, the fact that the project was on the brink of collapse is hardly news. For months, the FCAS had been in astandoff, due to unresolved industrial disputes between Airbus Defence and Dassault. These tensions have prevented the programme from moving on to the next phase of development. The programme has remained stuck in the technology demonstration phase. 

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The Failure of the Future Combat Air System

Launched in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel to strengthen European defence, with an estimated cost of around one hundred billion euros, the project saw Spain join the team in 2019. It then stalled on several occasions due to disputes over planning and design between the French manufacturer Dassault and the Airbus Group, which represents German and Spanish interests. Having previously been unofficial, the definitive halt is now ‘official’. Had it been built, the FCAS would have been a ‘system of systems’ in which a piloted fighter jet would have operated under the cover of swarms of drones and a combat cloud.

... and the uncertainties surrounding the GCAP involving Italia, the UK and Japan

As one European project on sixth-generation fighter jets comes to an end, another is getting underway days of uncertainty. This is the case with the GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme), the programme involving the UK, Italia and Japan. It is being developed by the Edgewing joint venture between BAE Systems, Leonardo and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co. Ltd. On 30 June, the £686 million bridge contract awarded in April by the GCAP Agency to Edgewing, the industrial joint venture created to lead the aircraft’s design and development, will expire. This bridge contract funds key design and engineering activities.

By that date, the UK Ministry of Defence must approve the Defence Investment Plan, a spending plan that authorises multi-year funding for the GCAP. BAE Systems has warned that if the DIP is not given the green light by the end of the month, more than 4,000 engineers and technicians — including around 3,000 Italians at Leonardo’s sites in Turin, Rome and other locations — risk being reassigned to other programmes. According to sources close to the matter, the UK’s approval of the plan will ultimately arrive in time.

UK Defence Secretary resigns: ‘insufficient resources for the armed forces’

In the meantime, however, on Thursday 11 June, the British Defence Secretary, John Healey, unexpectedly tendered his resignation in a letter addressed to Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, accusing the Treasury of refusing to allocate the necessary resources to defend the country ‘at this time of growing threats’. This was another major blow for the Prime Minister in the midst of a leadership crisis, coming on the heels of the recent resignation of Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

Marrone (Iai): the GCAP could now attract potential partners such as Canada and Germany

“At this stage, it is essential that London puts an end to its delays in funding its share of the investment in the GCAP’s technological development, given that Italia and Japan have already done their part,” notes Alessandro Marrone, head of the “Defence, Security and Space” programme at the IAI, Institute of International Affairs. “If, as seems likely, London honours its commitments despite internal political difficulties, the GCAP becomes more attractive to potential partners such as Canada and Germany, who do not wish to be dependent in future on a US-made aircraft and recognise the benefits of cooperation with like-minded and reliable countries.”

Marrone has no doubts: “The announcement of the split between France and Germany over the next-generation fighter marks the end of the FCAS project,” he stresses. “The intention to cooperate on drones and the fighter jet’s cloud infrastructure is a waste of time,” he adds, “given that nine years of efforts on the core platform have led to this failure. In a 2025 IAI report on the GCAP, we were already discussing the possibility of the Franco-German project failing, because the divergence between Airbus and Dassault was clear to experts, the latter having no positive experience of European cooperation on combat aircraft.”

What might happen now? What will Berlin do? And Paris?

Germany appears to be seeking to develop its defence capabilities more independently. This shift is part of a sharp increase in German military spending, which is expected to exceed €100 billion as early as 2026 and reach around €153 billion a year by 2029.

“Berlin might consider joining the GCAP, given its decades-long, successful aeronautical cooperation with Italia and the UK, first on the Tornado and then on the Eurofighter. ‘Merz and Meloni already discussed this months ago,’ notes Marrone. ‘France will certainly opt for a new national fighter produced by Dassault, as it has done in recent decades.’

According to some analysts, the end of Franco-German cooperation on the next-generation fighter jet has not created a vacuum, but has accelerated a European convergence with different characteristics: the trend appears to be towards a consortium comprising the United Kingdom, Italia and Japan, with Germany playing a pivotal role. The outcome of this contest could reshape the European air defence industrial landscape until 2040.

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