Crisis of the skies

Chaos in the skies: up to 18,000 flights cancelled

Alternative routes to the Gulf airspace and the closure of Russia. Skyrocketing air ticket prices

by Mara Monti

3 March 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Cancellations at Fiumicino and Malpensa
Ticket prices skyrocket
Alternative routes to the Gulf and Russia

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Four days after the start of the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States, the tension in the skies does not subside. The conflict is spreading, and Dubai, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and Lebanon have become unreachable, while the number of cancelled flights is inevitably lengthening: since the start of the conflict on 28 February, 18,000 flights have been cancelled arriving in and departing from the Middle East, up from 12,900 yesterday, about 54% of the flights scheduled, according to the aviation analyst firm Cirium.

Cancellations at Fiumicino and Malpensa

Tens of thousands of passengers are stranded and the only flights carried out by the airlines are special evacuation flights. At Fiumicino airport, from 28 February to Tuesday 3 February, 106 flights were cancelled between arrivals and departures out of 800 flights to and from the capital's airport. Today alone there were 12 cancellations between arrivals and departures that were communicated in advance to passengers who did not turn up at the airport. Also for today there are two scheduled return flights, one by Ethiad, the Abu Dhabi airline, and one by Oman Air. At Milan Malpensa, about 85 flights have been cancelled since 28 February between arrivals and departures.

Ticket prices skyrocket

The immediate consequence of this scenario is skyrocketing ticket prices on Asia-Europe routes after the closure of the Gulf airports due to the need for airlines to find other routes that avoid the Middle East, which are longer and more expensive in terms of fuel consumption.

An example is offered by the Australian company Qantas Airlines: for those who have to return to London immediately by flying from Sydney, the route offered is via Los Angeles or Cape Town, when normally the route is via Singapore, but this flight is only available again from 17 March. The price is around EUR 2,500 in economy class. The direct flight from Bankok to London with Thai airlines is sold out. With Cathay Pacific, the direct flight from Hong Kong to London has no seats available in economy class until 11 March.

The Gulf's main hubs, including the world's busiest international airport, Dubai Airport, which normally handles over 1,000 flights a day, were closed for the fourth consecutive day, drastically reducing capacity on popular routes such as those from Australia to Europe, where Emirates and Qatar Airways normally hold a high market share.

The alternative routes to the Gulf and Russia

Carriers offering direct flights between Asia and Europe are able to bypass the closed airspace of the Middle East by flying north through the Caucasus and then Afghanistan or south through Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman.

However, this solution increases flight times and fuel consumption, driving up costs at a time when oil prices have soared, resulting in higher ticket prices.

The Gulf airlines are the ones that are suffering the heaviest repercussions, as in the case of Emitates, the Dubai carrier that has cancelled two thousand flights since the beginning of the conflict and the airspace will remain closed until at least 4 March, the same goes for Ethiad, Air Arabia and Oman Air, Qatar Airways: all these companies currently only offer repatriation flights.

Airlines operating non-stop services or through alternative hubs outside the affected region, including Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways, Singapore Airlines and Turkish Airlines, are currently in a privileged position, at least in the short term, being chosen as an alternative to the Gulf carriers.

The impact on companies' balance sheets

Although airline stocks are still under pressure on the stock market, analysts believe that the impacts of these closures are limited as 'revenue exposure to the Middle East and Asia is modest, even taking into account longer routes due to airspace closures,' Moody's analysts commented. Moreover, the hedging policies adopted by carriers since the previous oil crisis, 'offer additional short-term protection. However, prolonged disruptions or higher oil prices would increase the industry's risk'.

Meanwhile, the pressure continued to mount, with Japan Airlines shares closing down 6.4 per cent, while Korean Air Lines shares fell 10.3 per cent, the most since March 2020. Cathay Pacific shares closed down about 3%.

The same applies to the major Chinese airlines Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, which all closed down between 2% and 4% in Hong Kong and Shanghai.

In Europe, the shares of Wizz Air, IAG (owner of British Airways), Lufthansa, and Air France KLM fell between 5% and 7%. Shares of US airlines United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines recorded declines of between 4% and 5% on Wall Street.

The uncertainty over the duration of the conflict is likely to force passengers to cancel or reschedule their trips. With Russian skies largely closed to Western airlines since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, carriers are now forced to use increasingly restricted flight corridors over the Middle East, forcing them to increase flight times and fuel consumption to circumvent war zones while demand for alternatives to Gulf airlines increases with increased bookings and ticket prices on routes such as Hong Kong-London.