Interventions

Smart roads: why speed limits are not enough to stop traffic

As recent research shows, urban design is more important for regulating city life than traffic restrictions

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

In an era marked by increasing political polarisation, even urban planning is falling into the crosshairs of the so-called culture wars.

It all started a few years ago with the concept of the 15-minute city, the idea of neighbourhoods in which essential services can be reached on foot or by bicycle in a quarter of an hour and soon became the focus of numerous conspiracy theories. More recently, the 30 km/h urban speed limit has fuelled new cultural clashes. However, the results of our research at the Senseable City Lab, in collaboration with UnipolTech, suggest that these battles may be misguided. In fact, the best way to reduce car speeds in the city is not so much the number indicated on road signs as the design of the road.

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To better understand this phenomenon, let us take a step back. In 2020, the proposal to limit speed to 30 km/h in cities became a central theme in the re-election campaign of the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo. The idea was simple: slower traffic means safer streets, quieter neighbourhoods and cleaner air. These beliefs were also supported by our previous research, conducted in Paris itself, which showed that slower urban areas attract almost twice as many people, promoting greater diversity and social mix.

As soon as she was re-elected, Hidalgo introduced the new speed limit, and soon other cities - from Milan to Brussels, from Bologna to Amsterdam - began to follow suit. The backlash was not long in coming, especially in Italy. For many drivers, such a low limit seemed more a form of social control than a road safety measure. In an era dominated by online clicks, the measure was immediately interpreted as a sign of authoritarian drift.

Our Lab also ended up in the crosshairs. In July 2024, we presented the results of a study on the impact of 'Zone 30' in Milan. Using telemetry data provided by UnipolTech, we accurately assessed the effect of such a policy. Result? The increase in travel time would have been negligible, around 34 seconds more per journey. The reduction in road accidents would have been around 37 per cent, as quantified by previous studies. While pollution levels would have remained essentially unchanged, with a minimal and statistically insignificant increase.

Open heavens. Despite the abundance of data, the media fired off sensationalist headlines about an increase in pollution in the 30 km zones. And, in the months that followed, various political initiatives arose to undermine the 30 km/h zones, such as banning the use of the cameras required to enforce them in the municipalities that had adopted them.

In response to this fuss, over the past year we decided to take a closer look at the issue - again from a scientific point of view. We focused on three cities: Milan, Amsterdam and Dubai, collecting over 73 million data points and 1.2 million street images. Thanks to Artificial Intelligence models based on Deep Learning, we can now analyse this large-scale data with great speed - a topic that is also at the heart of the Venice Architecture Biennale (Intelligens. Natural. Artificial. Collective, until 23 November).

The results are surprising. Limits alone are not the best way to slow down traffic. When they drop from 50 to 30 km/h, the average speed is reduced by only 2 or 3 km/h. What matters most, however, is urban design. Narrow, recessed streets between dense buildings make us slow down naturally, while wide, open streets with wide views encourage us to press on the accelerator. In other words, urban design seems to be much more effective than laws in determining driving behaviour.

There can be many reasons for this phenomenon. In many countries, especially in Italy, speed limits are often perceived as suggestions. A regulatory change, therefore, does not automatically translate into a behavioural change. Milan and Bologna, where the use of control cameras has been banned, are clear examples of how difficult it is to rely only on punitive measures in a context of low social conformity.

In contrast, the urban configuration has a direct impact on our behaviour behind the wheel. Urban planners had long guessed that street design could help moderate speed, but only today, thanks to artificial intelligence, can we measure and generalise these principles in different contexts.

Our Ai model is able to predict the likely average speed on any given stretch of road from simple images such as Google Street View, providing planners with a predictive tool to assess the impact of different design choices. How would traffic change if we included raised pedestrian crossings? Or if lanes were narrower? Or if rows of trees were introduced? Depending on the configuration, the model can accurately predict traffic speed.

By comparing results from Milan, Amsterdam and Dubai, we also discovered how local context influences driver behaviour. In Milan, with UnipolTech, we studied traditional mixed-use roads, while in Amsterdam, with the Ams Institute, we analysed a bicycle-dominated road network with reduced car access. In Dubai, with Dubai Future Foundation, we tested urban highways in extreme heat. An interesting fact: the temperature can also affect the average speed, reducing it by kilometres per hour.

In short, road geometry, culture and climate shape the way we drive more than laws. We can use these factors to improve traffic management and design more liveable, inclusive and sustainable cities. And who knows, thanks to data and artificial intelligence, we might even be able to find common ground between different political positions, finally leaving conspiracy theories behind us.

Engineer and architect, professor at MIT Boston and Politecnico di Milano

Founder of the research group Senseable City Lab and the Car Carlo Ratti Associati studio
In 2025 he was director of the Venice Architecture Biennale

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