Snam in the queue, closing of the Open Grid Europe deal to be postponed

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - In a FTSE MIB almost all in positive territory and with declines however limited, at the tail slides Snam Rete Gas , while a postponement of the closing of Snam's acquisition of the 25% stake in Germany's Open Grid Europe, initially expected by the end of the third quarter of 2025 (Abu Dhabi-based Infinity Investments is selling), appears likely.

As Il Sole 24 Ore wrote over the weekend, the main reasons would be linked to the concerns expressed in the summer by the German government over the presence (albeit a minority one, 35%) of the Chinese State Grid in Cdp Reti, itself a controlling shareholder of Snam. The newspaper does not even rule out a rethink on the part of Snam's new management despite the deal being binding: 'On the operation - concluded by former CEO Stefano Venier in April, just a month before being replaced by Agostino Scornajenchi - Snam and its shareholders are said to have begun adeep reflection. It is difficult to say where these evaluations will lead: the road is marked out by binding agreements, but the picture is fluid. In the market there are those who maintain that the deal, albeit with delays, will be finalised, but also those who go so far as to hypothesise, as an extreme scenario, a resounding dietrofont'. In fact, the deal was subject to three conditions precedent: the German Antitrust Authority's OK, the failure of the other shareholders of the Luxembourg holding company that controls Open Grid Europe (Belgium's Fluxys, British Columbia Management and Munich Re) to exercise pre-emption, and Berlin's authorisation under German foreign investment law. The latter, a de factoGolden Power, would currently represent the real node in the path towards closing.

As Intermonte's analysts point out, "at the time of the offer (equity worth €920 million) Snam's management had forecast an impact on annual net profit in a range of between 2% and 3% on average over the period of the current strategic plan, with no impact on the group's creditworthiness and dividend policy. As far as the 2025 numbers are concerned, the impact on the fourth quarter was expected to be in the area of 10-15 million. The 2025 guidance has not yet been updated post-offer on Oge. "Although the acquisition of 25% of Oge remains consistent with Snam's strategy (increasingly strong focus on European assets and periodic rotation of the Associates portfolio, amounting to more than 3 billion at the end of the first half of the year), we believe that a possible turnaround on the deal would lead to less pressure on Snam's leverage," adds Equita, recalling that, "although financed with a hybrid bond, the deal would bring the 2025 Nd/Ebitda ratio (calculated including hybrids as debt) close to 7 times".