Wheat prices: soft wheat on the rise and (difficult) signs of recovery for durum wheat

Further substantial rises for soft wheat and tentative attempts at a recovery from recent years’ lows for durum wheat. The commodities market, which underpins the success of exports of flour, pizza and pasta – for which Italia has a deficit of over 50 per cent – has recorded rises of over 15 per cent between June (the start of the marketing year) and October 2026 for soft bread-making wheat on the Bologna Commodities Exchange, at 259 euros per tonne, and slightly lower (+14.7% to 278 euros) for high-gluten wheat.

The rises were even more pronounced on Euronext Paris, a benchmark for the European market, where futures contracts for the nearest expiry rose by 17.5 per cent, driven in part by maize prices hitting their highest levels since 2022 – a competing commodity, particularly for the animal feed industry.

The situation is different for durum wheat, which represents a niche market when compared globally with soft wheat (40 million tonnes compared with 800) . For ‘Fino Nord Italia’ quality durum wheat, the latest price recorded by the new single national commission is 279.5 euros per tonne, up 8.7 per cent on June. Despite the recovery seen in recent trading sessions, the average for the 2026–27 marketing year remains 30 per cent lower than the average for the last five years.

A situation that is reflected in the disinvestments expected this year. Following a loss-making harvest for many producers, amid rising costs and prices at record lows, in the ‘breadbasket of Italia’, in Capitanata, the forthcoming winter sowings could – according to very early indications – be reduced by 5 per cent, focusing on land with the highest production capacity and leaving marginal areas aside.

“The soft wheat market,” explains Carlotta De Pasquale, senior analyst at Areté, “remains buoyed by a tighter global outlook. Production for 2026–27 is forecast to fall by 3 per cent, with declines in the main exporting countries, including Russia, the EU, Canada, Australia and the US. However, the lower production would be almost entirely offset by higher opening stocks. Furthermore, demand in Europe remains high: logistical difficulties and the slowdown in exports from the Black Sea are in fact shifting part of the demand towards EU sources, a trend also supported by the weakening of the euro. Further support comes from maize, whose high prices continue to put pressure on the entire cereal sector.