Somalia: government declares that order has been restored. Tensions remain high

NAIROBI – The Somali authorities have declared that order has been restored in the capital, Mogadishu, following the clashes that broke out between 3 and 4 June between local security forces and militias linked to the opposition. The violence erupted ahead of protests expected last Thursday against the extension of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s presidential term by (at least) one year, a measure that secured parliamentary approval in March and put on hold a vote scheduled for later this year.

The elections were supposed to mark the first nationwide attempt at a vote free from the clan-based divisions that have dominated Mogadishu’s parliament for decades. The postponement has sparked the opposition’s anger and reignited tensions in a country already rife with unrest, including the resurgence of the jihadist group al-Shabaab, the separatist aspirations of Somaliland and Puntland, and the broader web of tensions dominating the Horn of Africa. The political chaos comes just a few months before the start of Turkish exploration for energy resources off the Somali coast, one of the pillars of Mogadishu’s plans to re-establish itself as an oil and diplomatic hub between Africa and South-West Asia. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has reported a toll of 13 dead, 189 injured and 12,500 families forced to flee their homes.

The statement issued by the Somali authorities speaks of civilians who have ‘returned to normal life’, but the tone does not seem to suggest a move towards reconciliation. The government explicitly accuses two opposition leaders – former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed – of deploying ‘illegally armed groups’ and facilitating attacks against civilians, forcing the government to ‘respond accordingly’. Both have made counter-allegations, denouncing the attacks by government forces against the ‘peaceful’ demonstrations scheduled for 4 June and dispersed following the escalation.

Sources cited by Somali media report that Ahmed is still ‘held up at a security checkpoint’ and that ‘negotiations with international support’ are currently taking place, following those that broke down in recent days. The clashes that have erupted in the capital have drawn condemnation from the African Union, UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the US embassy in Mogadishu, raising the alarm in a country already beset by instability on multiple fronts. Among the most obvious are the offensive by al-Shabaab militants and the push for independence by Somaliland, the autonomous state that declared its independence from Mogadishu in 1991 and secured Israel’s endorsement last December. The two crises intersect. “Any crisis benefits groups outside the system, such as al-Shabaab,” explains Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group, a think tank. The escalating tensions, Mahmood adds, “prevent other fundamental issues from being addressed, such as defining Somaliland’s status or resolving tensions within the federal system”.