South, the end of the NWFP and war in Iran will slow down the convergence process

Italia will face with difficulty the storm generated by the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and soon the negative effects of the end of the NRP will be added. The Mezzogiorno, even more so, will not be able to maintain the dynamic of recent years and the path of catching up with the northern regions will tend to slow down. Prometeia assumes an average annual GDP growth between 2026 and 2029 for Italia of 0.5 per cent and for southern Italy of 0.3 per cent. In other words, the Mezzogiorno, which in recent years had grown more than the other areas of the country, could slow down from this year and, as a result, the convergence objectives could also move further away. The Prometeia study centre therefore sees a problematic future for Italia and its South. This was discussed at Merita's annual conference, 'Il Mezzogiorno dopo il Pnrr' (The South after the NRP), held at Intesa Sanpaolo's Gallerie d'Italia headquarters. An opportunity to compare economic studies, statistics, analyses and political strategies.

Of a more optimistic tone is the study by Srm of Intesa Sanpaolo that, while considering the imminent risks linked to the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and the conclusion in 2027 of the NRP, which has brought important investments to Italia and especially to the south of Italy, many of which are now close to completion, highlights the progress made in the south of Italy that makes it more resilient. "The South _ according to Srm _ is already inside the Italian supply chains and 40% of what it produces goes to the Centre North, against an Italian average of 30%". Moreover, the South invests and looks ahead: 65% of companies have invested in the last three years (Italy: 67%) and 58% plan to continue investing in 2025-2027 (Italia: 47%). For Intesa Sanpaolo's research centre, making growth structural and more solid requires focusing on connections, skills and innovation. Srm's managing director Massimo Deandreis also launches an appealing proposal: 'There are already numerous connections between Puglia and Campania _ says Deandreis _ prevailing production sectors, product exchanges, companies present in both regions. Why not exploit these synergies with greater coordination? Together the two regions would have a GDP equal to 11% of Italy's total, second only to Lombardy'. The Merita conference was also an opportunity to present the same foundation's contributions on Campania and Puglia, from which a picture emerges of the last 25 years of stagnation, despite the post-pandemic accelerations.

In short, a Mezzogiorno that has grown thanks to strong investments, both public and private, but is not yet immune to possible setbacks. "I would like to emphasise a number of achievements _ said Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, chairman of Intesa Sanpaolo's board of directors _ The first is a fact: between 2019 and 2024, the growth dynamic of the Gross Domestic Product of southern Italy exceeded the national one by two percentage points, with a cumulative increase of 7.7% against the average 5.8% for the country as a whole: it was therefore possible to reverse a historical gap and initiate a dynamic process of growth that tends to be homogeneous. The second point concerns the conviction that an important part of the improvement is to be attributed to the NRP, its content, and the way it is financed. I am particularly proud to be able to say that Intesa Sanpaolo is also the largest bank in southern Italy, in terms of financial activity in the area". Gros-Pietro also adds that "The issuance of common European debt against such investments would easily find subscribers and help create a unified, deep and liquid financial market, similar to the one that for decades has allowed the US and the dollar to attract resources from the rest of the world".

"The NRP should be viewed positively _ said Claudio De Vincenti, southern economist and honorary president of Merita, _ 101 billion out of 194 were spent. This spending capacity in a five-year period has never been seen before in Italia. But we ask ourselves: has the southern question been overcome? In truth, the gap remains'. The priority, for De Vincenti, is to revise the composition of the state budget, which is not suitable for investment.

Speakers on the first day included European Commission Vice-President Raffaele Fitto, the mayor of Naples, Gaetano Manfredi, the undersecretary with responsibility for the South, Luigi Sbarra, the governors of Campania and Puglia, Roberto Fico and Antonio Decaro, the Intesa Sanpaolo director for Campania, Calabria and Sicily, Giuseppe Nargi, the president of Adler, Paolo Scudieri, and Daria Perrotta, State Accountant General. In closing, minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin was in attendance.