South, 40% of growth from NRP and EU Structural Funds but uncertainties about 2024
6' min read
6' min read
To more homogeneous public policies, especially in terms of public investments, the South reacts and gets going. But it may turn out to be a faltering race, destined to stop or lose pace when certain extraordinary factors - starting with NRP spending and the spending queue of the 2014-2020 EU funds - leave the scene.
This is the message that can be gleaned from the 2023 GDP, which has grown in the South more than in the Centre-North. A message that needs to be carefully plumbed, number by number, to discover how much there is of solid, lasting, mature economic development in the South, just as we are at the dawn of the differentiated autonomy era. On 13 July, the Calderoli law comes into force, and understanding what has really brought about the overtaking of 2023 is a fundamental exercise in order not to delude ourselves that the new course of regional competences is being grafted onto a terrain that has now been put back into balance.
The post Covid scenario
.On the post-crisis trend, the readings are not entirely unambiguous. In its latest Annual Report, the Bank of Italy notes that since 2019 the growth of southern GDP has been lower than the national average and that of the North, and the product is still more than 7 points below the 2008-2009 crisis, while in the northern regions it is higher as early as 2022. The GDP per capita remains just over 55% of that of the rest of the country, at almost constant levels since 2016. Svimez, for its part, estimates a more robust 2023 such as to determine a +3.7% over 2019 compared to 3.5% nationally and +3.4% in the North-West (+5.1% in the North-East). According to this analysis, which is in line with the preliminary data released a few days later by Istat, last year had the effect of a detonator (+1.3% real GDP compared to +0.9% nationally and in the North-East, while the North-West shows +1%).
But it is no coincidence that the Mezzogiorno exceeds the national average for the first time since 2015. Today, as then, the figure is strongly influenced by the rush of public administrations to take advantage of the last useful year of European programming to spend structural funds. At the time, this was the 2007-2013 cycle (the 'n+2' rule applied, i.e. certifications up to two years from the end) while this time payments were linked to the 2014-2020 period for which the 'n+3' rule applies instead. The accumulated payments are essentially related to public works, with an effect on construction. And the same applies, of course, to the powerful engine of the NRP, which in 2023 was finally switched on and on a good number of projects complied with the 40% clause in favour of the South. When all is said and done, Svimez attributes a contribution of 0.5 per cent, in practice 40 per cent of the overall growth in the South, to the greater expenditure in public investment, between the NRP and the structural funds.
Constructions
.Public investments grew by 16.8% in the South, compared to 7.2% in the Centre-North. If we look at works, translated into euro the boost is worth 4.3 billion (from 8.7 to 13 billion). It is clear that in a context in which construction contributes to the formation of added value in a particularly significant way, more so than in the Centre-North, the effect is that of an economic mini-tsunami. ISTAT reports a growth in added value of 4.6% for construction, probably also due to the last few months of acceleration of superbonus expenditure in view of the décalage triggered in 2024. This dynamic was accompanied by positive trends particularly in those services that have construction-related lines of business, such as real estate, financial and professional services (+3.3%). Services related to education and healthcare also performed well. While it is on industry that the analysis and narrative of the recovery in the South visibly change register.
