S&P upgrades Italia's rating, wait for confirmation. How the other revisions went in 2026
S&P Global Ratings' latest rating for Italia was published on 30 January 2026. On that occasion, the agency kept the rating unchanged at BBB+ and improved the outlook to positive, confirming the assessment of October and April 2025, when the country's creditworthiness was raised from the previous BBB level
Key points
On Friday, 15 May, the Standard & Poor's agency will publish, with the markets closed, its new rating on Italia's public debt. A confirmation is expected. S&P Global Ratings' last rating for Italia was published on 30 January 2026. On that occasion, the agency kept the rating unchanged at BBB+ and improved the outlook to positive, confirming the rating of October and April 2025, when the country's creditworthiness was raised from the previous BBB level.
The outlook has therefore been upgraded from 'stable' to 'positive', rewarding the fact that 'Italy's economy, including its labour market, has demonstrated resilience in the face of trade and tariff uncertainty, posting net current account surpluses that support private wealth and continued improvements in the country's net foreign credit position'. According to the rating agency, fiscal consolidation 'is proceeding gradually, with the nominal budget deficit expected to fall below 3 per cent of GDP in 2026, while cash-flow adjustments related to the Superbonus are diminishing'.
Scope, Italia rating remains BBB+/Positive
S&P's rating comes after that of Scope, which last 24 April completed its monitoring review for the Republic of Italy, maintaining the issuer's long-term rating in local and foreign currency and senior unsecured debt at BBB+/Positive and the issuer's short-term rating in local and foreign currency at S-2/Positive).
Dbrs confirms Italia's rating at 'A' with stable trend
On 17 April the agency Dbrs Morningstar confirmed Italia's A (low) rating with stable trend. "The fallout from the war in the Middle East risks weighing on domestic demand and dampening growth in the short term given Italia's dependence on energy imports," it stressed. Italia's "moderate but resilient growth" faces "headwinds from high energy prices and increased uncertainty", Dbrs said, stressing that fiscal consolidation continues but "the conflict in the Middle East poses risks for 2026".
Moody's cuts Italy's GDP: impact of Middle East war on growth and inflation
Even earlier to have its say on Italia was, on 28 March, Moody's. On that occasion, the rating agency slightly revised downwards its growth estimates for Italia in 2026 to 0.7 per cent from the initially estimated +0.8 per cent. Inflation forecasts were raised from 1.8% to 2.1%. The downward revision of growth and upward revision of inflation are due to the war in Iran, which, according to the rating agency, will be a relatively short-lived conflict in the baseline scenario.
